The progressive loss of the fire power of the Bolivarian National Armed forces (FANB) –for the reduction of budget and increasing defections, as well as the risk of the descent on the generalate by Diosdado Cabello –whose power within the regime has been consolidating again the last few months–, would be wearing Nicolas Maduro to try and organise an army spot that effectively respond to their authority.
In that direction it is to be understood the decision of a Mature promote the expansion of the National Liberation Army ( ELN) of Colombia in venezuelan territory and to sponsor its union with the dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Encouraged in this design by Cuba, Maduro would contribute to this operation with support material and communication capabilities contributed by Russia.
chavez has historically had more affinity with the FARC, but their wide demobilization becomes the ELN in these moments in a partner more decisive and advises the convergence of both groups in Venezuela. Given the freedom of movements by the government protection they receive, those fighters do not have to behave as insurgency or guerrilla warfare, but that can act as an army irregular, that can also recruit openly. It is a most effective strength, with combat experience, the Bolivarian Militia, whose ranks have been breaking with the exodus of millions of venezuelans.Godfather and Hair
The conspiracy against Maduro carried out by the minister of Defence, Vladimir Padrino , uncovered at the end of April and that was on the verge of consummating the presidential shift, as well as the revelation that the united States has been willing to open talks with Hair have been made to Mature especially suspicious about the fidelity that you can keep the military leadership.
it is Not only their fear of the action of any command of the Navy, the military branch on which he's always been suspicious, for having been especially refractory to chavismo, but now their fear is addressed also to the Army.
"For if a Hair, that at a given time can be done with the Army, you think any thing, Mature want to have an army spot that only answer to their orders", says Antonio de la Cruz, executive director of the Inter-American Trends, those who follow closely the pulse of power within chavismo.Less purchases of weaponry
despite the image that has wanted to be with the maneuvers made the last two weeks on the border with Colombia, in which they would have participated to 3,000 uniformed personnel, the reality is that the firepower of the FANB is being affected by the serious crisis facing the country.
A report from the International Institute of Peace Research of Stockholm ( SIPRI ), which is the main centre of studies on global trade of weapons, believes that, "although the military remain in full force" in the ecosystem of power-chavista, important elements such as budget challenges, the reduction in the purchase of armaments and defections may have reduced the functionality of the FANB.
Converted by the chavismo in the first Latin american country to purchase weapons, Venezuela had a record number of acquisitions in 2007 and 2008, the numbers fell after a bump, momentary in oil prices during the great global recession, to achieve then in 2013 a new peak of shopping. From 2014, however, the volume of acquisitions has been dramatically reduced, due to the lower revenues of the State by the abrupt collapse in the price of crude this year, in which the procurement of weapons fell by a quarter.
and So it happened to spend 988 million of TIV –a value used by SIPRI for their calculations– in 2013, to spend 203 billion by 2014, 133 million in 2015, 210 million in 2016, and only 32 million in 2017. The last three years, the supplier countries were China and Ukraine.
In regard to the budget officer, SIPRIS estimates that it has gone down from 2014. The Government has tried to compensate the military with items from FONDEN (National Development Fund), which do not require parliamentary authorisation. However, to be affected by the FONDEN for the oil prices, the Government has sought other ways to ensure revenue to the FANB, as the participation in the provision of food.Defections and russians
on the other hand, since February of this year about 560 soldiers who recognized John Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela fled to Colombia, as contained in the report of SIPRI. But the degree of drop-out is higher, given that most of those who are absent from their quarters are not reported as military authorities of the country to which they arrive.
The journalist Sebastiana Barráez has released a document of the FANB in the list to 219 officers "absent from their units without authorization." It is not clear if it is the only list made; in any case, if this is the volume of defection among the officer corps, part of which is located in a privileged position, it would presumably be quite a bit higher among the non-commissioned officers and the troop.
Precisely Barráez brought recently a piece of data that feeds the suspicions about the possibility that Maduro might be organizing an army spot. Testimonials local reported having seen Russian soldiers while accessing the top of a hill in the area of the city of San Cristobal, by using accesses that were protected by the ELN. It is assumed that, in the case of a hill, had to do with installations of antennas for communications.
The expert Antonio de la Cruz suggests that the strength of the private military company Russian Wagner arrived a few months ago to Venezuela might be involved in these plans Mature. In social networks has been reported to have seen Russian personnel in uniform fatigue venezuela in Fuerte Tiuna, the main military installation in Caracas.Updated Date: 25 September 2019, 12:02