Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the friendship between China and Russia seems stronger than ever. The two rulers Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping speak of a bilateral friendship "without borders", drive forward joint construction projects and conduct lively trade relations.
But how "boundless" is the friendship between Beijing and the Kremlin really? Is the Russian-Chinese partnership resilient, or is Xi Jinping exploiting Russia, which is becoming increasingly isolated as a result of its invasion of Ukraine, for his own ends?
Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, its economy has shifted east – and with it economic cooperation with China. The tightening of Western sanctions meant that China's share of Russian exports increased from 8 percent in 2014 to 15 percent in 2020.
In January 2022, the Russian customs administration reported a 19 percent share of all Russian trade from China: For comparison: trade with Germany is only 7.4 percent, and trade with the USA is only 3.3 percent. From an economic point of view, China is a much more important partner for Russia than the western industrialized countries.
But the war in Ukraine put a damper on economic cooperation between the two countries. Although Beijing does not support the West's economic sanctions against Russia, it does not supply its partner with weapons either. In addition, China exports fewer goods to Russia than before the war, as the "Frankfurter Rundschau" reported last week.
The Peterson Institute in Washington (PIIE) analyzed export data from 54 countries, which together accounted for almost 90 percent of Russian imports in 2021. The result: From the start of the war in February to April, exports from the sanctioning states collapsed by 60 percent, while deliveries to Russia from those countries that are not officially participating in the sanctions fell by 40 percent.
China's Russia exports also fell by 38 percent. The reason: According to the PIIE, multinational companies based in China fear the consequences of abstaining from the sanctions. This could prevent them from accessing American technology, for example. But not only international, but also Chinese companies like Huawei deliver less to Russia.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin needs China's support more than ever. However, this is not mutual: Russia is a relatively small market for China. In January and February this year, exports to Russia accounted for just 2.7 percent of China's total exports. The EU and the USA are far more important trading partners for the People's Republic, even if Beijing receives weapons from Russia, which it certainly does not want to do without.
Not only is China distancing itself from Western sanctions, it is also using the war in a targeted manner to obtain cheap energy and food from Russia. The day after invading Ukraine, China announced it would lift all import restrictions on Russian wheat. Likewise, China and Russia want to sign a 30-year deal for a brand new gas pipeline.
China also uses Russia to push through political goals. Both Putin and Xi Jinping believe US hegemony poses a threat to them and their territorial claims. The leaders of Russia and China publicly position themselves as opponents of the United States and an international order based on liberal political values.
“Russia and China are strong value partners. This creates a solid foundation for the relationship, which is likely to remain strong at least as long as Putin and Xi remain in power," says Brian Carlson of ETH Zurich's Center for Security Studies in an interview with WELT.
This will remain so, because since Xi is aiming for a third term in autumn, it is impossible for him to abandon his anti-Western position, which is closely linked to his person. At the same time, Beijing is economically dependent on the West, for example in the field of high technology.
And Putin? Good relations with China help him pursue his goals. However, Moscow is slipping more and more into the role of the Chinese's impoverished junior partner. "As the balance of power shifts in China's favour, Russia will become increasingly dependent on China and under increasing pressure to support China's goals," Carlson said.
