The world looked to Kyiv in the early days of the Ukraine war - and wondered how long the country and its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would withstand the full-scale Russian invasion. They hold out to this day, forcing the Russian army to withdraw from Kyiv to the east.
One result of the first days of the war was almost lost sight of: parallel to the attack on Kyiv, Russia had also attacked from the occupied Crimea in southern Ukraine and brought a large area around the 300,000-inhabitant city of Cherson under its control. Later, Russia managed to connect the new territories around Kherson and its territories in eastern Ukraine by capturing the port city of Mariupol into a strip of southern Ukraine.
The city of Cherson had already been conquered on March 2, which means it has been under Russian control for five months now - and concerns in Kyiv are growing every day that areas that have been under foreign rule for so long are becoming increasingly difficult to liberate. Over the months, Russia had replaced the Ukrainian administration with a Russian one and introduced the ruble as a means of payment. Separatists loyal to Moscow announced that they would call a referendum on joining Russia.
However, after defending Kyiv, the Ukrainian army was busy slowing down the advance of the Russian army in eastern Ukraine. After conquering the Luhansk region, the Russian offensive lost momentum in the past two to three weeks.
And the Ukrainian President ordered a good ten days ago to move south with a large number of soldiers to liberate the areas there at the beginning of the war. But in the past few days, the situation has remained confusing and it was unclear whether and how the Ukrainian armed forces would implement the plan.
On the night of Sunday, Zelenskyj said in his daily video speech that Ukrainian troops are gradually moving into the eastern Cherson region, which was occupied by Russian soldiers at the beginning of the war. “The squatters tried to gain a foothold there. But how did it help them? The Ukrainian military is moving into the region in stages,” said Zelenskyy.
The independent US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which evaluates the course of the war in detail every day, wrote in an analysis on Sunday night that it was still difficult to assess the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The course of the offensive will very likely become visible "limited and delayed", it said in the analysis.
The adviser to the Ukrainian administration of Kherson reported on Saturday that Ukrainian forces had seized several settlements in the region. However, he did not name names and urged residents of the region not to spread the news until there were official statements from the Ukrainian authorities.
The area between the front and the city of Cherson is rural and mainly characterized by small settlements. According to the ISW analysis, it is unlikely that any troop movements or fighting will be reported from this region. Therefore, it is quite possible that control over a certain territory changes without the public noticing. At the same time, it is unlikely that new information will come from the Russian side if they lose territory.
The situation in eastern Ukraine is also difficult to interpret at the moment. The Russian army had recently completed the conquest of the Luhansk region - and is now aiming to seize the second large part of the so-called Donbass with the Donetsk region.
The next target of the offensive is the 74,000-inhabitant town of Bachmut. However, the Russian troops have recently made little progress worth mentioning. Data from the satellite photo provider Nasa Firms for the week of July 15-23 clearly shows that the number of fires is decreasing along the entire Donbass front. This strongly suggests, according to ISW analysts, that Ukraine is using Western-supplied Himar rocket launchers to hit Russian artillery hard.
Zelenskyy called Saturday's rocket attacks on the port of Odessa an act of "blatant Russian barbarism" in his late-night address. The beatings are another reason for giving Ukraine such weapons "that are necessary for our victory," said the head of state in his video message published on Saturday evening.
He accused Russia of shelling the port of Odessa a day after the agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain was signed in Istanbul. Russia rejects this, as Turkey announced after talks with the war party.
On the other hand, Zelenskyj said that Russia had exposed itself politically with the rocket attacks. "If anyone in the world said earlier that it is necessary to enter into dialogue with Russia, to reach agreements on a ceasefire without liberating our territory from the occupiers, today's missiles have destroyed the possibility of such statements," he said.
On Friday, Russia pledged in the agreement that ships for export would be allowed to use a sea corridor and not fired at them. The three ports involved must therefore not be attacked. Among other things, it is about the export of millions of tons of grain. The agreement, signed through the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey, provides for exports to be monitored from a control center in Istanbul.
The US government also blamed Russia for the shelling of Odessa. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia broke its commitments just a day after agreeing to export Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea. "This attack raises serious doubts about the credibility of Russia's commitment to yesterday's agreement."
Blinken criticized the shelling as undermining the work of the United Nations, Turkey and Ukraine to get essential food products to world markets. Russia bears responsibility for worsening the global food crisis. Moscow has approved the grain export agreement and now has the duty to fully implement it.
