The elections in the Netherlands have represented a complete overturn to the traditional party system that in the last 13 years has been dominated by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) of still acting Prime Minister Mark Rutte. The leader of the far right, Geert Wilders, has achieved an unappealable victory, with 37 seats, taking a big advantage over the second most voted candidate, the social democrat Frans Timmermans (25). Although the polls have spoken clearly, Wilders' approaches have been so radical for years that the rest of the parliamentary arc of the right and center-right does not now assure him of his support; and if he does so, a government coalition led by him will cost him dearly.
After the clear electoral results, neither the center-right candidate, Dilan Yesilgöz (24 deputies), nor the founder of the New Social Contract (NSC), Pieter Omtzigt (20), have slammed the door on negotiating with him. But they have made it clear to him that they will not make things easy for him either.
The Dutch majority parties do not want to hear talk of holding a referendum for the Netherlands to leave the EU - Nexit -, of closing mosques or Muslim schools or of stopping sending aid to Ukraine, as Wilders' program proposes. .
Until a few weeks ago, the ultra leader has been an almost anti-system leader, with proposals often considered by the rest of the parties as bizarre or impossible to implement. However, during this electoral campaign and also after the polls closed, the Dutch leader has moderated his speech, has shown himself willing to renounce the hardest part of his program and has confirmed that everything he agrees on "will be within the Constitution".
The play is clear. Wilders softened to appeal to more voters. And now he is trying to seduce the rest of the center and right-wing formations. It remains to be seen if the rest of the political leaders consider this change in discourse credible and if the demands they will put on the table will be acceptable to Wilders.
For now, the winner began to move his chips on the same election night: "I appeal to the parties. The campaign is over and the voters have spoken. Now, we will have to seek agreements between us. With our magnificent result, the PVV is already can no longer be ignored." All this, yes, he said it after crying out passionately to his followers in favor of stopping "the tsunami of immigration." This is despite the fact that the Netherlands does not have a large percentage of immigrant population (it is similar to that of Spain, between 13% and 14%, according to UN comparative reports).
The elections have not only made it clear that the Dutch want change and that they have opted for Wilders. The vote of punishment against the formations that formed the previous Government led by Rutte has been very harsh. The VVD has lost 10 seats, the left-liberals of the D66, 15, and the Christian Democrats of the CDA, 10 deputies. All of these parties were part of the Executive that was blown up in July because they were unable to agree precisely on migration and asylum policy, which caused the elections on November 22.
What does not seem to be changing are the deadlines for forming a Government. In 2021, Mark Rutte took more than nine months to close a coalition, 271 days. And many analysts are pointing out that now the formation of the Executive may be even more difficult and lengthy.
Wilders is expected to begin taking steps this Friday to begin negotiations with the VVD, the NSC and the Peasant Movement (BBB), with six seats, the parties of the coalition he aspires to forge and which would add 87 deputies out of the 150 which the Lower House has, a comfortable absolute majority.
Dilan Yesilgöz, Rutte's former Minister of Justice and former favorite, who has suffered a severe electoral setback, has not refused to agree with the extreme right, something that will always depend, she has pointed out, on the decision her party makes. Last August, she was the one who lifted the historic veto that the VVD liberals had imposed on the far right.
The lifting of that veto has been one of the errors of the liberals that could have contributed to Wilders' victory, according to some experts. Ruud Koole, professor of Political Science at Leiden University and former Labor senator, explains to Efe that Yesilgöz "played a huge role in legitimizing Wilders in the eyes of some voters" because, with the VVD's veto, many considered it a "vote." lost" bet on the PVV. But as there was hope that he would govern thanks to the candidate's change of position, the scenario changed.
Expert Diederik Brink, from the University of Applied Sciences in The Hague, agrees with this opinion: "Lifting the veto was a huge strategic error because it normalized its behavior of the last 20 years and accepted its role as a future important actor."
After Wilders' victory, Yesilgöz has returned to a harder and more skeptical position, but without returning to the veto that she raised: "Now it is his turn; he has to demonstrate if he is capable of forming a majority," he stated. Omtzigt, of the NSC, has shown his "availability" to dialogue with Wilders, although highlighting that "it will not be easy": "We are available to convert the confidence of the votes, which we take very seriously, into actions starting tomorrow" .
The only important leader who remains firm in his cordon sanitaire against the extreme right is the former vice president of the European Commission Frans Timmermans, candidate of the coalition formed by social democrats and greens (PvdA-GroenLinks): "I will never form a coalition with parties that They maintain that asylum seekers are the source of all misery.
