What is still a long way off for cars could be a matter of course for big trucks in just a few years: autonomous driving. The pressure in the industry is growing. Driverless tests in Ulm have already reached the decisive phase.
They are called Truck-Pilot, Bertha or Newton and can hardly be distinguished from other trucks. They take the roundabout in a port area, park precisely next to rail tracks to load containers, and dare to take test drives on the motorway – fully or largely autonomously. Self-driving articulated lorries, equipped with cameras, sensors, radar and a brain full of artificial intelligence, are currently overtaking the forecasts that their manufacturers themselves had only recently made.
In a Deutsche Bahn transshipment terminal, an intelligent MAN truck loads containers from a freight train onto a truck during everyday operation. In early summer, the Anita automation project showed the public on a test track in Munich how the feelers in the driver's cab recognize obstacles – and deal with treacherous reflections on wet asphalt. The driverless tests in Ulm have now entered the decisive phase, according to MAN Research Director Frederik Zohm.
Further north, automated trucks have been commuting between the Soltau container terminal and the port of Hamburg since July 2020. The driver of an Emden forwarding company is behind the wheel for 70 kilometers along the A7; data was collected for future autonomous driving. At the port check-in area, he makes room for a security driver – for stand-by. The truck driver drives independently to his destination at the 1,400 meter long block storage facility at Ballinkai, reverses into his parking position and signals: container ready for unloading.
A third project is testing "automated transport between logistics centers on highways": In addition to MAN, three suppliers, two tech companies, three scientific institutions and TÜV Süd are involved in Atlas-L4 for the use of driverless trucks on the highway. Declared intention: to have an innovative logistics concept for the operation of automated trucks on the motorway that can be transferred to industrialization by the middle of the decade.
Is that still utopia, lofty dreams of the future, or will robo-trucks soon be natural road users on German roads? One thing is certain, the pressure in the industry is increasing, because the volume of freight is increasing, as is the acute shortage of truck drivers. Experts therefore see the industry as ready to jump: "I strongly assume that self-driving trucks will go into operation in two to three years," says Andreas Herzig, who is responsible for artificial intelligence in the automotive sector at the consulting firm Deloitte. The USA might be faster; "but also in Europe, partnered logisticians and manufacturers will go beyond pilot projects and come onto the road".
The expert has noticed a sharp increase in activity for both in the past two years. In cooperation with specialized tech companies, German truck builders are leaders in development and financially strong. Herzig: "I would say they are in the start-up phase."
Which does not mean that the traffic light is already green. "For safety reasons, it will take longer for trucks than for cars for truly autonomous driving in all traffic situations," says Hartmut Güthner, an expert in autonomous driving, dampening expectations. One problem, for example, is the all-round view of articulated lorries with changing loads. Away from simple paths, the complexity of the information to be processed by on-board computers explodes. "But hub-to-hub concepts can already be implemented today," says Güthner, director at the consulting firm Strategy
So what about the economic environment? Traffic jams in Germany cause economic damage in the billions every year, around 90 percent of road accidents are caused by human error, and a lack of drivers is a drag on company growth. The industry association speaks of at least 60,000 missing professional drivers, with around 17,000 professionals and around 30,000 retirees. Ascending trend. Cargo transportation is expected to grow from 17.4 billion tons in 2015 to 25.5 billion tons in 2045.
Güthner estimates that a self-propelled train truck system requires investments in the range of 250 million to 1 billion euros from development to qualification. Funding from the federal government is in the single-digit million range. The operators would have to pay for the AI-enabled expansion and conversion of depots, transshipment points or logistics centers. In order to make motorways fit for highly automated driving - for example by setting up signal posts on approved routes - the federal government would have to get on track. However, economical operation is decisive for series production.
And here the incentives for road freight transport are noticeably higher than for cars. Deloitte expert Herzig believes that more expensive, semi-autonomous cars with a highway pilot will be particularly popular with status-conscious drivers who are interested in technology. In the case of commercial vehicles, on the other hand, there is "a crystal-clear business case: significantly increased efficiency and lower costs". Because the vehicles could be on the road in the permitted driving situations without breaks and without a driver. Evenly distributed over 24 hours a day, seven days, this also relieves the roads and infrastructure.
Strategy
Since only certain traffic areas are initially approved for autonomous driving - for example motorways - Deloitte man Herzig also believes it is worthwhile setting up your own junctions or hubs nearby. The hubs represent the handover points between automated heavy vehicles and smaller vans with drivers who take over the relay race in residential and commercial areas. The computing power that would be required in such an environment - for the enormous number of data processing steps with a very short response time at the same time - could not yet be represented by the computers currently installed in test vehicles.
With its autonomous driving law passed in 2021, Germany is playing a pioneering role, say experts. Test models that gain experience with risks and side effects have so far been on the road with special approvals. This is how the AI learns. In addition, over the next two years, the EU plans to require the operators of AI systems to carry out permanent monitoring for a number of risk classes, including for pilot projects. Cyber security has also been relevant for approval since this year: a vehicle must be so secure that hackers cannot hijack it and control it remotely.
According to legal regulations, trucks with driver assistance are already allowed to drive autonomously in certain situations - for example up to 60 kilometers per hour on German autobahns and with a driver on board who is on guard and can step in if necessary. Deloitte expert Herzig expects the legislator to increase the limit to 130 kilometers per hour on German autobahns in the next one to two years. Then we speak of "free travel" on approved distances. The "specified operating areas" mentioned in the law also included routes between logistics hubs. Approvals for the operation of automated vehicles - with safety driver or remote pilot or without - would probably have to be issued individually by the district offices.
Gradually, imperceptibly automated new vehicles will mix with the rolling fleet of trucks. In addition to the Nuremberg manufacturer MAN, which belongs to the Volkswagen subsidiary Traton, Daimler Trucks has set itself the goal of mass-producing self-driving trucks – by the end of the decade. Especially in the USA, but recently also in Stuttgart, Daimler is developing robotic trucks for long-distance with the tech subsidiary Torc and the experienced strategic partner Waymo. Around 30,000 truckers were missing in the USA in 2021.
This year, the authorities allowed the Swedish manufacturer Scania to extend the radius of self-driving test vehicles (with a safety driver) from 70 kilometers on the motorway to 300 kilometers from the factory gate in Södertälje to the city of Jönköping, 300 kilometers away – on expressways and country roads. Volvo Autonomous Solutions (VAS) announced in May that they would pilot a hub-to-hub solution with the logistics group DHL in the USA. Volvo is also developing an electric semi-trailer. The Swedish manufacturer Einride is also currently competing electrically in Germany – it wants to get involved in the automated market with a futuristic-looking pod truck without a driver’s cab.
According to the company, the truck pilot passed the tests in the three-year MAN project with Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA). The logisticians tested the integration into the highly automated handling processes. For the time being, however, this will not work entirely without the help of a driver: a driver still has to get out, open a twist lock and confirm this on a card reader so that the container can be unloaded automatically. But that's probably part of the fine-tuning.
