The global supply chain problems, which largely stem from the corona pandemic, will hit German industry massively in 2021. According to a study, the added value is therefore around 64 billion euros lower. The auto industry is hit particularly hard.
According to calculations by researchers, supply chain problems caused German industry to lose around 64 billion euros in added value between the beginning of 2021 and mid-2022. This is the result of a study published in Düsseldorf by the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) of the Hans Böckler Foundation. Accordingly, car manufacturers in particular suffered from a lack of components for production.
The study goes on to say that the automotive industry lost around 31 billion euros or almost half of the total value. Due to the lack of supplies, the overall economic recovery after the end of the corona restrictions was significantly weaker overall. According to the experts' calculations, without the disruptions to the supply chains, German gross domestic product would have been 1.2 percent higher at the end of 2021 and 1.5 percent higher in mid-2022.
According to the study, it is unclear whether the loss of added value is temporary or permanent. According to the experts, the order backlog is still very high. At the same time, the increasingly difficult economic situation due to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine increases the risk that some outstanding orders will be cancelled.
The impairments are mainly due to production losses in East Asia and transport problems, but also to misjudgments in the procurement strategies of companies. IMK experts Thomas Theobald and Peter Hohlfeld warned that the extent of the failures makes it clear that the previous business policy orientation, with which German industry is integrated into international supply chains, is anything but ideal in stressful global economic situations.
The global supply chains have been disrupted for some time - mainly because of the Corona crisis. Incidents such as a large container ship getting stuck in the important Suez Canal also weighed on the situation last year.
