The world threatens to fall into blocks. The war in Ukraine deepens the rifts between East and West. But there is an important bridge: trade.
Welcome to our new old world: The war in the Ukraine erected a symbolic wall between East and West at record speed that seemed almost destroyed. Russia and China as autocratic villains against Europe and the USA as democratic heroines - at least that is the colorless portrayal of some journalists, who paint a black and white picture of the here and now. No, it's not that simple.
But the fact is: nothing has been the same since February 24, 2022. Europe imposes huge package of sanctions on Russia in the wake of the attack on Ukraine. Russia is selling record amounts of oil at cheap prices to India. Meanwhile, India is dealing with East and West as the supposedly neutral middle - while China is steadily increasing its threats of attack on Taiwan. Is the next war of aggression imminent?
First of all, no, because Taiwan's best friend, the USA, is there to protect it. Speaking of the USA: The "United States" will soon only be cooking their own soup. The recipe calls itself "Inflation Reduction Act". Translated it means something like: Adios globalization! America first. Again. And Germany? Out of concern about too much dependence on Beijing, the traffic light first drafts an extra China strategy. Globalization? A discontinued model. "Trade Through Change"? Was yesterday. Great prospects. Are you all freaking out now?
The answer is: no. And if you now think these lines are completely over the top: Yes, they are. But a good story also needs a bit of drama. hook behind. What a good story still needs is a savior. And I brought that one with me too: The child's name is "Economics", it has had a long heroic journey and is the key to world peace in these times.
You may have heard of "The Hero's Journey" before? A model according to which many successful Hollywood films are shot. Myth researcher Joseph Campbell proposed the theory that a hero overcomes extreme situations at different stages of his journey and surpasses himself with the help of mentors. So the perfect storytelling.
And so back to the longed-for world peace and the "Hero's Journey" of today's economic world. It has long since left the annoying cliché of capitalism behind. There is not much left of the wicked image in which economic nations in some parts of the world were accused purely of greed for money. Instead, the world economy turns out to be the only real transnational link here on earth. Everywhere we look, international trade agreements that (should) connect large parts of the world are being worked on. The largest free trade agreement in the world "RCEP", which unites 30 percent of the world's population, is just one example. But the many trips made by Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck also clearly show that business builds bridges and connects.
This also applies to countries that are politically hostile to each other: the US needs China - and China needs the US (at least still). Yes, the gulf between autocratic and democratic nations has widened. And yet the need for more and more prosperity is the great common denominator that hovers over the globe like a halo.
Globalization has made large parts of the world interdependent. Thank God. What would be going on here on earth if the decades of economic relations between China and the West did not exist? What would happen if China, based on political like-mindedness, could unreservedly side with Russia because it has nothing to lose economically? I don't like to imagine.
Yes, the Ukraine war clearly has global escalation potential. But the global economy serves as a "showstopper" in a positive sense. World trade has never been more important than now. Even if protectionist tendencies are now increasing: globalization cannot simply be turned around.
