Unemployment Insurance sharply revised downwards on Tuesday, February 20, its surplus forecast for 2024 due to the economic situation and less compensation by the State for exemptions from contributions, which is slowing down its debt reduction, according to a press release from Unédic.
The surplus, still forecast at 5 billion euros last September, would ultimately only be 1.1 billion euros, before starting to rise again in 2025 (3 billion), in 2026 (5.3 billion) and in 2027 (11.2 billion), according to these forecasts.
To finance France Travail (which replaced Pôle emploi on January 1) and France Compétences (vocational training), the Social Security financing law adopted in December provides for less compensation by the State for exemptions from insurance contributions unemployment. Revenues had already been reduced by 2 billion euros in 2023.
A brake on the reduction of unemployment insurance debt
The financial loss induced by this budgetary measure will be 2.6 billion euros in 2024, 3.35 billion in 2025 and 4.1 billion in 2026, or 12.05 billion over four years, recalls Unédic, which underlines that it “clearly slows down the reduction of unemployment insurance debt”. As a result, “the debt would be 38.6 billion euros at the end of 2027” whereas “it would have been 25.5 billion without these levies”, specifies the organization.
These financial forecasts assume GDP growth of 0.7% in 2024, lower than the government's growth rate of 1%, and growth of 1.3% from 2025 to 2027. Job creation, which would peak at 29,000 this year, would rise again in 2025 (112,000), in 2026 (129,000) and in 2027 (200,000).
“From 2025, the ramp-up of reforms and especially a more favorable economic situation would reduce the number of unemployed to 2.4 million in 2027”, compared to just over 3 million today, Unédic anticipates.
