The protests in China seem to have worked: the government in Beijing has promised to relax the strict zero-Covid policy for the first time. However, experts fear that the step will not only result in a huge wave of infections, but also in many deaths.
Daily corona tests, lockdowns and forced quarantine: life in China has been characterized by strict control measures for three years. This should be over now. Because just a week after protests against the draconian zero-Covid policy broke out across the country, the government in Beijing is making an abrupt 180-degree turn. And this in the midst of the most violent wave of infections the country has ever experienced.
For a long time, China did well with its strategy - at least as far as containing the virus was concerned. While wave after wave rolled over most countries, China was able to contain the corona virus very well. However, it may only be a matter of time before a new variant emerges that is so immune-volatile and contagious that even China's strict measures are powerless to stop it. With Omikron, the time had finally come.
But instead of preparing for such a scenario with, for example, an increased booster vaccination campaign, the Chinese leadership pushed its zero-Covid strategy. In some cases, entire districts were cordoned off for weeks, hundreds of thousands of people were stuck in their homes or - even worse - in quarantine camps. Meanwhile, daily immunizations dropped to a record low. Intensive care beds remained scarce, but more and more test cabins and isolation facilities sprout from the ground. In addition, research into homegrown mRNA vaccines has not kept pace with the rapidly evolving virus.
In view of the spread of the omicron variant and the simultaneously burgeoning aspirations of the population for freedom, China was in a quandary. With the announced easing, the central government is now taking a first step towards normality - but not without risks. According to state media, the former vice director of the Chinese health authority, Feng Zijian, assumes that 80 to 90 percent of the population will become infected. This in turn could result in a flood of corona deaths. Back in May, a study by Fudan University in Shanghai warned of a "tsunami" of Covid cases and about 1.6 million deaths if China abandons its "zero Covid" policy.
After the recent outbreak in Beijing, hospitals in the capital are already experiencing a strong influx of infected people and a shortage of staff. "The emergency room is full of patients," a nurse told Yicai magazine. "Many patients who come to the emergency room turn out to be positive after a PCR test." An essay is circulating in medical circles, according to which the next month or two will be "the darkest moment" for the medical staff. "Positive patients are piling up in the fever clinic and there are many complications," reports a hospital intensive care doctor.
"The fact is that China is not ready for a wave of this magnitude," Siddharth Sridhar, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, told the New York Times. Only 60 percent of the population has been vaccinated three times against the virus. It is known that the vaccines approved in China provide the best protection against severe disease progression when they are administered three times. And even then, according to studies, they work less reliably than mRNA vaccines. However, they have not yet been approved for the local population in China.
This could be particularly dangerous for the elderly population. Two-thirds of those over 80 have been vaccinated, but only 40 percent have received a booster shot. An investigation during the omicron wave in Hong Kong earlier this year showed that two doses of China's vaccine Sinovac only protect 58 percent of people over the age of 80 from a severe course of Covid. However, two doses of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine were 87 percent effective in the same group.
In addition, most Chinese people had their last vaccination a long time ago. This also reduces protection against serious illnesses. According to observers, the zero-Covid strategy has complicated vaccination efforts. Limiting infections saves lives, but at the same time many older people are unaware of the urgency of vaccination, says Andy Chan, an analyst at a Shanghai-based consulting firm, the New York Times.
Now, the omicron lineage of the coronavirus usually causes less severe courses. This is how the government justifies the easing steps. According to Beijing, the virus has changed. More than 95 percent of cases in China are asymptomatic and mild, and the mortality rate is low. However, scientists doubt that omicron is completely harmless for China. Even if 95 percent of the cases are asymptomatic, if there was a massive increase in infections, the remaining five percent were enough to push the health system to the limit, writes virologist Sridhar on Twitter.
China has already announced plans to set up mobile vaccination stations, bring vaccinations to nursing homes and go door to door to reach the most vulnerable. However, it is questionable whether this will succeed in time before the feared wave spills over the country. In addition, new variants could spread if the virus now hits millions of people in China without sufficient immune protection. "We are already observing variants, for example from Asia, that are changed at even more points in the spike protein with which the virus infects our cells," said immunologist Leif Erik Sander from the Berlin Charité in an interview with ntv.de. If such variants prevail, a considerable number of infections can be expected.
There are now more ways to treat Covid-19 antivirally in China. In addition, four new Chinese vaccines have received emergency approval, three protein-based vaccines and a nasal spray vaccine. It's about keeping the infection curve "flat," says a European health expert in Beijing, according to the German Press Agency. It is "a race between the virus and vaccinations - with a somewhat unknown outcome in terms of the number of deaths".
