The grain agreement gives hope that more than 20 million tons of grain will soon leave the Ukrainian ports. But the ship transit is extremely dangerous, because clearing the sea mines would have "taken too much time". The freighter therefore expects a risky slalom ride.
It is estimated that more than 20 million tons of grain are waiting to be shipped in Ukraine. Since Friday last week there has been great hope that the grain from Europe's granary can finally be transported out into the world. In Istanbul, representatives of Russia and Ukraine, mediated by Turkey and the UN, signed an agreement intended to guarantee the safe transport of grain during the war.
But just one day later, a Russian missile attack shook the port of the Black Sea city of Odessa. Kalibr cruise missiles have hit a ship repair plant, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. "Harpoon" anti-ship missiles from the USA were stored in it, and a Ukrainian warship was also in the dock.
Two Russian missiles were intercepted and two more hit the port, Ukraine said. Grain was also stored there at the time of the attack, but the stocks were apparently not affected by the shelling.
So the current indications are that the Grains Agreement will go into effect despite the renewed Russian attack. At the ports in Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhne, preparations for the resumption of transport are in full swing, said the Ukrainian authority responsible for the seaports. And Russia is also sticking to the plan.
The plan is to send the grain ships along the Black Sea like a string of pearls. A lead ship is to lead the ship caravan. Shipping companies that want to send ships to this caravan have to register them. A coordination center for the passage of ships is to be installed in Istanbul. Representatives from Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and the United Nations are to coordinate and secure the passage through the Black Sea.
Near the coast, Ukrainian pilots are supposed to steer the ships past the highly dangerous sea mines, escorted by Ukrainian warships. It's the riskiest part of the transit. Except for the warring factions, nobody knows how many sea mines are lurking in the Black Sea.
What is certain is that shortly after the start of the war, the Ukrainians mined their ports and coastal areas to protect themselves from Russian attacks from the Black Sea. "It's about so-called anchor mines. These are mines that are laid out in shallower waters just off ports or coastlines. They essentially serve to prevent an amphibious landing," said military expert Wolfgang Richter from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP ) last explained in the ntv podcast "Learned something again".
Anchor rope mines are attached to an anchor with a rope. The metal balls lurk just below the surface of the water. When a ship touches the mine, it explodes and in most cases sinks the ship. How many of these explosive devices are in the Black Sea is unclear. "It can be several hundred mines if you mine a coastline," Richter makes clear. Who placed the mines is also speculation. Both warring parties use a number of mines from old Soviet stocks, which makes identification difficult. Especially since Ukrainian mines also fell into the hands of the Russians during the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
In terms of military strategy, mining ports and coastlines is not uncommon, says Wolfgang Richter. Sea mines are an effective means of preventing the enemy from attacking coastal towns from the sea. "You use the mines to stop the enemy, you force them to clear mines. During this time, you can fire on enemy ships from the coast," explains Richter.
In the course of the grain deal, Russia had pushed for Ukraine to remove all mines. However, Kyiv feared that the part of the Black Sea coast controlled by Ukraine could then become a gateway for Moscow's troops. Wolfgang Richter drew attention to this two weeks ago in the podcast: "The corridors for the ships must be so small that no amphibious landings are possible for Russia."
Ukraine will therefore only remove as many mines as necessary. The Istanbul treaty makes no mention of large-scale mine clearance in the Black Sea. According to UN officials, that would have "taken too much time." Should that still be necessary, a third country should help Ukraine. That's what the agreement says.
According to Wolfgang Richter, older types of mines in particular can cause problems when it comes to defusing them. These would have to be detonated using special mine clearers. "On the Ukrainian side there are mines that react to magnetic fields, which are then difficult to remove. In theory, they should be detonated." Newer models with an electronic detonator, on the other hand, could also be defused remotely, according to the expert. Richter believes it is fundamentally possible that "a well-trained mine clearance troop can clear a corridor within a few days," but the plans of the signatories are different.
However, a quick start of ship transit is not to be expected anyway. The United Nations speaks of weeks rather than days.
And even with the beginning of the grain transit, the danger is not averted. In the worst case, anchor rope mines can break free and then drift aimlessly through the Black Sea. At the end of March, Turkey discovered and blew up two floating sea mines at the entrance from the Black Sea to the Bosphorus. The origin of the mines is still unclear.
And the slalom journey through the mined Black Sea is not the only risk for the grain ships. Russia's rocket attack just one day after signing the agreement makes it clear that there can be no question of a de facto ceasefire in and around Odessa.
