50 years ago, the Club of Rome presented its epochal study on "The Limits to Growth". It marked the beginning of ecological thinking in global contexts and far into the future. Her successor relies on demands that appear to be utopian.
Be careful when using superlatives. The first report presented in 1972 by the Club of Rome, an association of experts from different fields from more than 30 countries, "on the state of mankind" can without any ifs and buts be described as epochal. This description of the state of the world is considered the original document of ecological thinking in global contexts. At that time, the experts developed the thesis, using data and analysis tools, according to which every individual and regional action has an influence on the ecological and socio-economic condition of the earth and consequences far into the future.
The resulting twelve different development scenarios were published by the Club of Rome as a book entitled "The Limits to Growth". The study went down in history under this name. The German edition featured a globe being trampled on by a black shoe on the cover. This fit with the dire prediction: The report concluded that there was a serious risk that between the years 2000 and 2100 the economy and ecosystem could collapse if the world population continued to grow rapidly and non-renewable resources were exploited at a sustained rate.
What is common knowledge today was a revolutionary approach at the time, since economic growth was seen as a sanctuary in the western world at the time. What has remained is the realization that "we only have this one planet," which the eco-movement later championed. The book - which has been translated into 30 languages and sold more than 30 million copies - triggered a debate that was just as heated as today's on climate protection. A week after publication, German-American economist Henry Wallich called the content "a piece of irresponsible nonsense".
Two years later the ozone hole was discovered. Nevertheless, it still took a long time before the world agreed on a sustainability program and measures against global warming from the early 1990s. Scientific studies show how close the gloomy forecasts from 1972 were to reality. However, little has changed - the dispute has remained. Because the catastrophe has not yet happened. In the past 50 years, numerous deposits of raw materials, such as oil and natural gas, have been discovered that contradict the assumption that non-renewable resources will soon come to an end. The world is not on the brink - but nobody will claim that it is perfectly healthy.
A few days ago, the Club of Rome presented its latest report - 50 years after "The Limits to Growth". The book accompanying the new study is called "Earth for All - A Survival Guide for Our Planet". Even the title shows both concern about the catastrophe and the confidence to protect "Earth for All" from it. Those responsible for Scripture speak of a "crossroads" because humanity is just sowing the seeds for the collapse of entire regions of the world. But it's not too late to turn things around.
The experts limit themselves to two scenarios, both of which begin in 1980 and end in 2100. One is called "Too Little Too Late" (too little, too late), the other "Giant Leap" (giant leap). The alarm bells are ringing though. In general, however, an effort to spread confidence is discernible. The Club of Rome trusts the world community to stabilize global warming below the two-degree mark and to make decisive progress in fighting poverty by 2050. The "systemic transformation" can be achieved "in decades and not just in centuries" if humanity acts now.
The 2022 report is also a science-based description of the sad state of the world, contrasted with "five extraordinary about-faces for global justice on a healthy planet". They relate to the issues of poverty, inequality, food, energy and empowerment ("bringing justice to the sexes") and are based on ideas that are, for the most part, already being demanded or discussed around the world. However, the book contains many demands which, in view of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and the domestic political mudslinging in the USA, appear to be - from today's perspective - unworkable utopias.
The proposals are combined with massive criticism of current capitalism. The Club of Rome envisages turning away "from winner-takes-all capitalism to Earth4All economies". "The levers are there, before our eyes, just waiting to be pulled." Examples include "establishing citizen funds to distribute the wealth of the global commons fairly to all citizens", "transforming the international financial system to facilitate rapid poverty reduction in many parts of the world" and "reducing investment risks in low-income countries and countries". debt relief".
The authors of the new study suspect - certainly rightly - that the ideas will meet with opposition. Some of the "traditional economists" would no doubt fear "that these changes will lead to an abrupt end to economic growth and eventual economic collapse". But they would be wrong about that. The implementation of the concept will "not cost the earth", but is "an investment in our future".
However, looking at all their proposals, the scientists also concede: "If you find a transformation of this magnitude frightening, you are not alone. It may seem like you have to roll a boulder up a mountain," the authors write with a look on their readers. However, they also consider a kind of self-runner to be possible. You could think about what would happen "if we just have to move the damn thing and let gravity do the rest"? Four forces - social movements, a new economic logic, technological development and political action - are ready to bring societies "over the tipping point in such a way that self-reinforcing positive cycles emerge". At the end of this process stands "one earth for all". If only it were that easy.
(This article was first published on Sunday, September 04, 2022.)
