Fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, Kiev's troops continue to advance on the Oskil front. The list of liberated towns gives a rough picture of the military situation. Is the Kremlin threatened with the next debacle?
Ukraine's armed forces are still advancing in the east of the country: the Russian invasion troops are losing ground on the front sections between Kupyansk and the Luhansk region. The reception positions on the Oskil front, hastily erected after the hasty retreat from Izyum, apparently cannot be held by the Russian soldiers.
Ukrainian shock troops have long since crossed the Oskil River in several places. In the past few days, Ukrainian attack spearheads have continued to advance. East of Izyum, Ukrainian units are also fighting their way from at least three bridgeheads across the Siverskyi Donets river in the direction of Lyman.
The reports of Russian war correspondents from the Lyman area sound increasingly bleak. Together with the pictures from other liberated towns circulating on the Internet, a clearer picture of the situation emerges: the Ukrainians have apparently succeeded once again in breaking through the Russian lines. According to Russian sources, the Russian units in the Lyman area are threatened with encirclement.
The Ukrainian general staff and the political leadership in Kyiv are still reticent about the military situation of their own forces. However, if the assessments of Western military experts are correct, the Kremlin could soon face a military debacle similar to that in Balakliya, Izyum and Kupyansk. The city of Lyman had fallen into the hands of the Russian invaders at the end of May after heavy fighting.
The few verifiable details of the location indicate the extent of the impending Russian defeat: Ukrainian units are moving north-west and south-east of Lyman to encircle the city on the Siwerskyi Donets held by Russian troops. The situation for the Russians there is becoming increasingly precarious. For several days now, the last open lines of communication from Lyman to the Russian-controlled rear have been within range of Ukrainian artillery pieces. Supplying the fighting units is becoming increasingly difficult for Russian supplies.
Using Western-made long-range precision ammunition, the Ukrainians can shell Russian bases throughout the Lyman region. In the northwest of the city, which once had a population of 20,000, the Ukrainians were recently able to liberate settlements and villages such as Ridkodub, Selena Dolyna, Pisky-Radkiwski and Nowoseliwka.
From the Russian point of view, the villages mentioned lie dangerously deep in the flank. At the same time, to the east of Lyman, Ukrainian shock troops are fighting their way through the lowlands of the Siwerskyi Donets. The direction of attack seems to be aimed at the trunk road near Saritschne and Torske. Exactly where the front line runs here cannot be determined with certainty from a distance.
Should the Russian front collapse in this sector, however, the ring around Lyman would be as good as closed. The Kremlin's military planners would have to accept the loss of another strategically important transport hub and sooner or later also fear Ukrainian attacks on Russian-held cities like Svatove or Starobilsk.
In addition, the Battle of Lyman is by no means the only section of the front where the Russians are under massive pressure. Earlier this week, Kyiv confirmed military successes at the Oskil bridgehead near Kupyansk. There the Ukrainians were able to recapture and secure the suburb of Kupjansk-Wuslovyj across the river. The freight station located there and the rail connection towards Luhansk, which is so important for Russian supplies, are now firmly in Ukrainian hands.
Compared to the Ukrainian offensive operations, the Russian strategy continues to appear conspicuously clumsy and clumsy. On the Luhansk front, for example, the Russian military is launching new attacks in the direction of Bakhmut on a daily basis, according to information from Kyiv.
Wagner mercenaries, separatists and regular Russian units face well-developed Ukrainian defenses here - close to the front lines that have existed since 2014. Despite small gains in territory, the combat operations there seem to have primarily tied down Russian forces - forces that were missing in the Battle of Lyman, on the Oskil front and, in the medium term, also on the front lines near Cherson.
