14 percent for the AfD – the right-wing populists last reached this mark three years ago. With the exception of the FDP, the other parties in the Bundestag remain stable this week. The Union keeps its distance from the pursuers.
The AfD has been on the upswing since the summer. From 10 percent approval at the beginning of August, the right-wing populists slowly but steadily worked their way up. This week, at 14 percent, they have reached their highest value since December 2019 in the RTL/ntv trend barometer. The traffic light has largely stabilized on their respective party values, the Greens are just ahead of the chancellor party SPD, as in the previous week, and the FDP has lost one percentage point. The Union still does not come close to the 30 percent mark, but can keep its distance from the Greens.
If the Bundestag were elected now, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 28 percent (Bundestag election 2021: 24.1 percent), Greens 20 percent (14.8 percent), SPD 18 percent (25.7 percent), AfD 14 percent (10.3 percent), FDP 6 percent (11.5 percent), Left 5 percent (4.9 percent). 9 percent of voters (8.7 percent) would choose other parties. At 25 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided is somewhat larger than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).
If the Germans could elect the Federal Chancellor directly and had the choice between incumbent Olaf Scholz from the SPD, the Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck and CDU leader Friedrich Merz, 22 percent of all eligible voters would support Scholz, 20 percent for Merz ( two percentage points less than in the previous week) and - also as in the previous week - 17 percent decide for Habeck. 41 percent would choose none of these three.
If those entitled to vote had the choice between Scholz, Merz and Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, 23 percent would vote for Scholz, 22 percent for Merz (one percentage point less than in the previous week) and 19 percent for the Green politician. 36 percent would support neither Scholz, Merz nor Baerbock. Merz's support among CDU/CSU supporters is lower than that of Scholz among respondents who are close to the SPD. Baerbock and Habeck also find more support among supporters of the Greens than Merz does among supporters of his party.
The proportion of voters who no longer trust any party to deal with the problems in Germany reached a new high of 63 percent this year. In the previous week it was 60 percent. 12 percent still ascribe political competence to the Greens, 9 percent each to the Union parties and the SPD, 3 percent to the FDP and 4 percent to the other parties.
Only 9 percent of all German citizens expect that the economic situation in Germany will improve in the coming years. The vast majority of 78 percent expect the economic situation to deteriorate. 11 percent expect no change. The energy supply and the war in Ukraine remain the two most important topics of interest to German citizens, at 77 and 69 percent respectively.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from September 27 to 30, 2022. Database: 2001 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 2.5 percentage points.
More information about Forsa here.Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.
