The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is maintained in the head of the polls in the final stretch of the elections that are held on Sunday in Germany, but the conservative block that form the Christianodemocratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Social-Christian Union (CSU) has shortened to three points the distances. According to the surveys released this Tuesday, the SPD retains 25% of the scrutiny of the latest projections, while the CDU-CSU progresses a percentage point, up to 22%.
The rest of the formations remain unchanged. The Greens, in 17%, the alternative populist for Germany (AFD) and the Liberals of the FDP, with 11%, respectively and Die Linke (left), at 6%.
The advance of the CDU-CSU does not alter the arithmetic in the face of the negotiations of the future coalition, but it is a cola wind for the conservatives, which after 16 years in power with Angela Merkel, we have been the punishment of weeks the polls.
"It's time for the CDU-CSU to go to the opposition," repeats the candidate of the Greens, Annalena Baerbock, in all its interventions. Baerbock has given the CDU-CSU for amortized and chosen as a travel companion to the SPD and vice versa.
Demance institutes have warned that surveys are still photos and that with 40% of undecided, the reliability of them is relative. That is added the victory's tendency to reconsider the vote of him at the last minute and put the cross back in the game of the known party, which in this case beneficiaries the CDU-CSU. Conservatives, therefore, have not said the last word.
Armin Laschet, the worst rated candidate of the three with more options reach the country's chancellery and politician, also improves in surveys. He still does not awaken passions, but he has won three points.
There are those who still laments the election of Laschet as a candidate to the detriment of Minister President Bávaro, Markus Söder, with better prospects of success at the time of making the decision. But the paradox is given that Söder's reputation at the federal level does not match the one he has in Bavaria. In the 2018 regional elections, Söder not only lost the absolute majority for the first time, but obtained the worst result of the CSU in history, with 37.8%.
The CSU, like any other party that provides legislative, must overcome the 5% threshold to access Parliament. In the elections four years ago, the CSU of Söder, obtained 44.2% of the votes, which transferred at the federal level was 6.2%. In these elections, CSU is between 28% and 30%, which means that it depends on the direct mandates to have a presence in the Bundestag. If the CSU does not achieve that 5%, it would be a political disaster for training and for Söder itself.
In the last Congress of the CSU, Söder secured the closure of rows of the CSU with his former rival Laschet and appealed to the Bavarians to vote massively at the polls to ensure that Bavaria had his own voice in federal politics. It was not an appeal to use and disinterested.
The CDU has also mobilized its strength to avoid a second position, which would also open a huge fracture in the game and could lead to the resignation of Laschet. The air that is breathed in the headquarters of the conservatives is, however heavy, and tense in the circumscriptions by which some of their barons are presented.
A good part of the current government ministers aspire to maintain their seat vote, including the Minister of Defense, Annegrete Kramp-Karrenbauer and the owner of Economy, Peter Altmaier. The surveys are unfavorable.
Date Of Update: 22 September 2021, 14:39
