If the opponent is in the corner, a boxer has an easy time. That's probably how China's President Xi Jinping saw it when he found out about Nancy Pelosi's travel plans to Taiwan. According to logic, Washington cannot and does not want to afford a second major conflict like the one in Ukraine.
So Beijing sent out one sign after the other with exaggerated threats to prevent the Speaker of the US House of Representatives from flying to Taipei. But the 82-year-old politician was not intimidated and visited the democratic island state.
A symbol that came at just the right time. With a visit “we underline our commitment to democracy. We affirm that the freedom of Taiwan, and that of all democracies, is to be respected," Pelosi wrote in a op-ed piece in the Washington Post. It has undermined the law of the strongest - just at the time when this seems to be establishing itself due to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are rulers of the same type. Both believe in the right of the strongest. A rules-based and multilateral order? Disturbs only when governing. For years, the Russian President felt empowered because the West, through its own fault, entered its energy dependency.
Wherever Putin invaded, whether in Chechnya, Georgia or, in 2014, Ukraine, the reflex in Europe was always the same: Putin could be contained with a little dialogue. This not only denied their own values, but also achieved the opposite. Because in the Kremlin, this behavior was interpreted as a weakness. The consequences can be seen today in Ukraine.
Beijing is claiming Taiwan in violation of international law and wants to seize it militarily if necessary. Beijing's violations of Taiwanese territory and target practice over the past few days show that the dictatorship will not let go of the island.
This is nothing new. On July 1 of last year, the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party, Xi made an aggressive speech in clear words: "We must completely combat any attempt at Taiwan's independence." It just didn't get much attention in the West. On the contrary: Germany sent the German Navy's frigate “Bayern” to the Indo-Pacific in the second half of the year to take a stand against Chinese dominance.
But instead of logically approaching the islands illegally claimed by China or crossing the Taiwan Strait, she should head for the port of Shanghai for a friendly visit. In the end, the fear of alienating China was too great.
Pelosi's visit made us aware of the Chinese threat to Taiwan. This was important because Taiwan's government has set 2025 as the date when China can achieve the ability to invade at a reasonable cost. We can no longer ignore the impending conflict with China, it will come. We still have time to prepare for it.
