In Ukraine, there are repeated power outages across the country because Russia is targeting power plants. In the energy crisis, the fear of blackouts is also great in Germany. If there was no power, almost nothing would work. The network operators are already rehearsing for emergencies.
An entire district of Berlin without electricity. More than 30,000 households and 2,000 businesses in Berlin-Köpenick were suddenly left in the dark for more than 30 hours. Builders destroyed two power cables. That's what happened in February 2019. The longest power outage in recent Berlin history.
In the middle of the cold winter, without hot water and heating: the fear of large-scale power failures is particularly great at the moment. Russia no longer supplies Germany with natural gas. And around twelve percent of Germany's electricity is generated with natural gas alone.
The risk of a widespread blackout has increased somewhat, says Kai Hufendiek, Director of the Institute for Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use at the University of Stuttgart, in the ntv podcast "Learned again". "I still think a blackout in the sense of a complete power system failure across the whole of Germany or Europe is very, very unlikely." If everything works technically flawlessly, this flat blackout should not exist.
The Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance says that Germany has a very secure power supply. However, it does not completely rule out a large-scale and long-lasting power failure. The stress test of the four German transmission system operators also showed that a large-scale blackout cannot be completely ruled out, but is very unlikely this winter.
In a European comparison, the power supply in Germany has so far performed very well: On average, consumers have to go without electricity for 12.7 minutes a year. In France, people sit in the dark about four times longer, namely 51.5 minutes. In Italy, Portugal and Great Britain it is even seven times longer on average - more than one and a half hours. Short power outages can always happen here, but they are mostly regionally limited.
A blackout can have many causes. Usually it comes suddenly. Cyber attacks or sabotage can also be responsible, as was the case with Deutsche Bahn a few weeks ago. Cables were damaged at the beginning of October, and almost all train traffic in several federal states was paralyzed for hours. Other causes are natural disasters, such as the flood disaster in the Ahr valley last year.
Kai Hufendiek currently sees another risk: that there is not enough gas to produce electricity. The German gas storage facilities are currently almost completely full. But: "If you only used storage, it would be enough for two months. The total amount is actually not enough to cover our normal gas consumption."
If that happens, individual regions or large consumers would have to be disconnected from the power grid for a certain period of time. This is not called a blackout, but a brownout. "If not enough electricity can be produced and demand is too high, grid areas would be switched off individually in turn to reduce the load," explains the energy expert in the podcast. That's uncomfortable, but not critical.
To prevent these hourly power outages, the federal government is leaving the German nuclear and coal-fired power plants connected to the grid for four months longer than originally planned. The network operators had also recommended this in their stress test.
The ailing nuclear power plants in France pose a threat to the German power supply. Only about half of the 56 nuclear power plants are currently in operation. That is why Germany temporarily sells electricity to France. This can also cause a bottleneck for us.
Renewable energies would hardly help in a critical situation. After all, wind, sun, water and biogas already generate 48.5 percent of the electricity in Germany. If the weather is favorable and there is a lot of renewable energy, there will hardly be any critical situations. If the opposite is the case, however, we are dependent on conventional power generation. If the gas is tight then, things could get tight.
Kai Hufendiek warns that since the transmission lines from the north to the south are not yet finished, it could become difficult in certain situations, even with high feed-ins from renewable energies. Namely, if the electricity cannot be transported and then in the south the coal, oil and nuclear power plants would not suffice as a substitute and there is a lack of gas. This is due to excessive approval processes. "If you get stuck in local opposition proceedings, you have a problem. The last kilometer of route that is missing means that the entire line is not working."
Four large transmission system operators in Germany are responsible for ensuring that the electricity reaches consumers: 50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT and TransnetBW. After a blackout, they have to start up the grid again. In the spring, Amprion and TransnetBW successfully ran through such a "black start" in southern Germany for the first time. For this they used a pumped storage power plant with a reservoir.
Not all power plants can start up under their own power when the electricity is gone. There are 174 of them in Germany, mostly hydroelectric power plants. Gas power plants or compressed air storage power plants can also start black. Coal or nuclear power plants can only do this if they have an engine or gas turbine installed. It is similar with photovoltaic and wind power plants.
After a blackout, these black start-capable power plants are then started up first, and then the others, explains Kai Hufendiek in the "Again what has been learned" podcast: "It works on a cell basis then it's back to hang the nets." This process can take quite a while: during the snow chaos in Münsterland in 2005, for example, it took six days before electricity was everywhere again. Parts of the network infrastructure had to be rebuilt there.
Even if it is currently unlikely despite the difficult situation: A complete blackout would have catastrophic consequences, since almost nothing would work in the whole country without electricity.
Telephones, computers, stoves and heaters would not work, elevators would stop and trains would stop. Supermarkets could no longer cool groceries. The city association considers a functioning emergency supply of water and heat to be safe for a maximum of 72 hours in the event of a blackout. According to a survey by the German Hospital Institute, hospitals could only survive a power outage for a few days.
But even if the electricity is only gone for a few hours, we should prepare ourselves: In this case, the Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance recommends having a small supply of food at home, as well as a camping stove, spare batteries for mobile phones, battery-operated lamps and Radios - and enough cash, because ATMs no longer work without electricity.
