Bundeswehr billions, nuclear dispute and now the China deal: Olaf Scholz has already spoken three power words during the short reign of the traffic light. In polls, that works for him. Also because the Greens and the FDP do not risk an uprising, but at most quietly grumble.
When Olaf Scholz referred in writing to his policy competence as Federal Chancellor in the nuclear dispute and announced that the nuclear power plant in Emsland would continue to operate for the time being, many were startled. A chancellor who has to remind his coalition partners that he has the right to make decisions - many commentators in the media saw that as a weakness. Within the short legislative period, Scholz has already spoken a word of power three times. He is much more like a "basta" chancellor than his predecessor, Angela Merkel, ever was.
For Scholz confidants, this is not new: in Hamburg, when he was mayor, there was a winged abbreviation "OWD" - "Olaf wants that," the quiet but resolute claim to power is rumored again and again. And according to information from government circles, cabinet members have already had to listen to this saying behind the scenes in the internal traffic light vote.
Three examples: The Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24 ensured that only three days later Scholz cleared important parts of the coalition agreement that had just been negotiated between the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. Without further ado, on February 27, he announced a 100 billion euro special fund for the Bundeswehr and an increase in the military budget to at least two percent of German economic output per year.
In doing so, he took both the Greens and important parts of the SPD by surprise, who had been hesitant to commit themselves to the NATO target of two percent in the election campaign and in the coalition agreement. "It was a long overdue measure with which we can finally end the neglect of the Bundeswehr," FDP leader Christian Lindner told the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung".
In the nuclear dispute, Scholz stopped the FDP's demand for an extension of the term of nuclear power to 2024 - and at the same time ignored a party congress resolution by the Greens by stipulating that the reactor in Emsland could run until April 2023. According to information from government circles, the fact that Scholz chose the form of a letter in which he pointed out his authority to set guidelines only shows how complicated the debate between the Greens and the FDP had been before.
And on Wednesday, the federal cabinet decided against the collective warnings from the Green and FDP ministries and from the traffic light parties that the Chinese shipping company Cosco should be allowed to take a 24.9 percent stake in the operator of a terminal in the Port of Hamburg. "That's the right solution," emphasized Scholz the day after. The concern about China's "wrong" influence on the infrastructure of the Port of Hamburg is justified. But with the solution that has been found, this is exactly what will be ruled out, said the Chancellor and pushed through his course.
Scholz benefits from this approach, even if it has been criticized in the media. In the RTL/ntv trend barometer, Scholz increases in approval, while the traffic light government as a whole is rated very poorly. For the first time in a long time, he is also the most popular politician in the ZDF Politbarometer. "He is rewarded for making decisions - because regardless of the content, this is precisely a sign of strength," says political scientist Gero Neugebauer. It is also remarkable that neither his own party nor the Greens or the FDP revolted. "That only shows that the real weakness lies with the coalition partners. Because they know that they cannot leave this government at all," says Neugebauer. Scholz takes advantage of that.
Although the Greens are doing better in polls, they could still be penalized in early elections. After the election slippage in the state elections, the FDP would even have to fear failing at the five percent hurdle. And the SPD seems tamed because it only has a chance of being chancellor with Scholz. A change to a Jamaica alliance with the Union would also find neither the Greens nor the FDP attractive, according to several interlocutors in the traffic light parties. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is not considered a partner of choice, nor do the Greens or FDP want to form a coalition with the CSU. When asked if Merz would be a good chancellor, Lindner said: "We have a good chancellor."
There is still grumbling: Unusually, several Green Party and FDP ministries in the cabinet backed a memorandum that expressly and in drastic terms warned of the dangers of Cosco entering the operating company in the Port of Hamburg. But in the chancellor's office this impressed less - even if one worries about the renewed impression of the inner turmoil of this self-proclaimed "breaking coalition".
However, a real uprising would have looked different: if the topic had really been that important to Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Economics Minister Robert Habeck, they could have called for a coalition committee. "Basically, everyone is satisfied that Scholz took responsibility," it says in government circles.
