"How is it possible that the numbers have changed so much in three weeks?" Did they do magic? asks Banji, a resident of Lagos, comparing the results of the presidential election on February 25 and those of the local elections held on March 18.
At the end of the first vote, Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labor Party (LP), had come out ahead in the megalopolis of more than 20 million inhabitants, carried by the aspiration for change of a good part of the urban youth. His lead of 10,000 votes in the stronghold of the elected president – the powerful Bola Tinubu – from the Congress of Progressives (APC, ruling party) had raised hopes that the post of governor could change hands.
But the APC did not give the opposition a second chance. Incumbent Governor Babajide Sanwo Olu won the election hands down in Lagos with more than 400,000 votes ahead of Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, the LP candidate.
“What we witnessed was theft, hooliganism. A government of thieves, made by thieves, for thieves,” the 40-year-old architect said at a press conference. Even before the announcement of the results, Mr. Rhodes-Vivour already denounced "the collusion between the ruling party and the officials of the Electoral Commission to have the APC candidate re-elected, which constitutes a slap in the face for democracy and all those who came out to vote on Saturday. »
Two elections deemed "inconclusive"
During this day, at least twenty-one people were killed throughout the territory, according to the European Union observation mission. It noted "multiple incidents and intimidation of voters, election officials, observers and journalists. »
In a statement released on Tuesday, March 21, the US Embassy in Nigeria said that members of the US mission were "immediate witnesses to these incidents". They also noted “the use of ethnically tinged rhetoric before, during and after the local election in Lagos. In the megalopolis, where the population is predominantly Yoruba, the ruling APC is accused of having maintained a hostile discourse vis-à-vis the Igbo, the ethnic group to which Peter Obi belongs, as well as the wife and mother of the Rhodes-Vivor candidate. In an already charged context, several lieutenants of the newly elected president did not hesitate to publicly declare that "Lagos belongs to the Yoruba".
This speech sickened Onyinye, a 25-year-old actress, herself Igbo, born in Lagos. "There is poverty in our country, a lack of education," she laments. If you put these kinds of ideas on the street, people buy into them without thinking. These repeated threats have scared off some would-be voters in a country already plagued by electoral apathy. Onyinye struggled to make her voice heard, despite a bad experience during the February 25 presidential election. That day, she recalls, “the poll workers stopped the vote at the person who was in line right in front of me. They told us that they had to leave to send the results to their bosses or because of the insecurity… These were obviously lies. I waited until 11 p.m., but I never got to vote." On March 18, she noticed, unsurprisingly, that the line was thinner outside her polling station.
"Bullying"
Data collected by the Stears analysis group confirms "a significant drop in turnout between the two elections, and particularly in constituencies where Igbo people are the most numerous. Its co-founder, Michaël Famoroti, believes that "violence and intimidation" were key instruments in dissuading opposition voters from slipping their ballots into the ballot box. Videos of polling station attacks, widely circulated on social media on election day itself, completed this undermining.
Local elections on March 18 were "much more violent and less credible" than Election Day on February 25, he said. The Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) deemed the election to be "inconclusive" in Kebbi and Adamawa states, where too many votes had to be annulled due to irregularities or violence.
In the end, of the 28 states that elected their governors, the APC took the lead in fifteen regions, while the People's Democratic Party (PDP, opposition) was only able to secure nine seats of governors. The Labor Party (LP), only managed to come out on top in Abia State, in the heart of Nigeria's Igbo-dominated south-east. Another opposition party, the New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP), scored a significant victory in the Kano region.
This formation is led by a former local governor, the very popular Rabiu Kwankwaso, whose candidacy had already united the inhabitants of the region during the presidential election. Again, the campaign was marked by violence and very offensive statements by the ruling APC.
Corruption charges
"A lot of people felt like their vote was stolen from them in 2019, when the elections were deemed inconclusive with the PDP running in the lead," said Aminu Hayatu Sanusi, who teaches political science at the Bayero University of Kano. "Kwankwaso really mobilized people around the idea that they needed to get their mandate back," he continued. Accusations of corruption against the incumbent governor, a member of the APC, and the "very strong personalization" of local politics in Nigeria cemented the victory of the NNPP candidate - a close Rabiu Kwankwaso.
These elections are above all a disappointment for the voters of the Labor Party (LP) and its figurehead, Peter Obi. The latter has just officially lodged an appeal to have the presidential election annulled, which he considers to have won. Yet his party's failure at the local level is "not necessarily surprising", according to Dengiyefa Angalapu, an analyst at the Center for Development and Democracy in Abuja. "Locally, people vote for personalities more than for parties," he says. The popularity of Peter Obi could not play this time. The governors were surprised by the success of this "third force" in the February 25 presidential election and it prompted them to campaign more seriously.
The scale of violence and intimidation is no less worrying. "This questions the role of the security forces, who were massively deployed in the polling stations," points out Dengiyefa Angalapu, who is also worried about a possible multiplication of disputes and disputes. At the risk of weakening the entire Nigerian electoral system.
