Less than three months before a crucial election, Israeli Prime Minister Jair Lapid has embarked on a risky military adventure. In a large-scale surprise offensive against the extremist Palestinian organization Islamic Jihad, Israeli forces bombed targets in the Gaza Strip for several days. Militant Palestinians responded with massive rocket fire on Israeli towns. Dozens of people were killed on the Palestinian side.
The aim of Israel's three-day campaign was to weaken the jihad - without the significantly stronger Hamas, which rules there, taking part in the fighting. An opportunity for Lapid to score internally - because the issue of security is crucial in elections in Israel. Unlike his biggest competitor in the upcoming parliamentary elections in November, the long-serving prime minister and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the 58-year-old is considered to be inexperienced in the military.
Who benefits, who loses
A ceasefire announced by both sides on Sunday evening held for the time being on Monday and it appears that Lapid's calculations have paid off. But it remains a fine line to walk. "If the ceasefire lasts longer, it will help him in the election," Israeli political scientist Jonathan Rynhold said on Monday. "Then he is seen as someone who acted decisively and successfully." Should Islamic Jihad attack Israel again, "then Bibi (Netanyahu's nickname) would take advantage of this and it would harm Lapid," said Rynhold. Critics have often dismissed Netanyahu - also known as "Mr Security" in Israel - from stoking fears of new attacks in order to profit from them.
As is so often the case, the loser in the conflict that flares up again and again is the civilian population. According to Palestinian sources, the most recent escalation killed 44 people in the Gaza Strip and injured 360.
In Israel, the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system prevented worse things from happening. Almost all rockets aimed at Israeli residential areas were intercepted - nobody was seriously injured here. With around 1,000 rockets fired according to the military, this is clear confirmation of Israel's defense capability.
Before the new conflict, Israel relied on economic incentives to alleviate the difficult living conditions of the two million inhabitants of the Gaza Strip. Around 14,000 Gaza residents received work permits in Israel, and the number was to be increased to 30,000.
As Foreign Minister, Lapid campaigned last year for an "Economy for Security" plan. In a first phase, this provided for the improvement of the power supply, connection to a gas pipeline, the construction of a desalination plant and the strengthening of the health system. All in exchange for a longer-term ceasefire. A second phase envisaged the construction of an artificial island and port off the coast of Gaza and international investment. In its editorial on Monday, the left-liberal newspaper Haaretz suggested that Lapid seize the "golden opportunity" to bring about a real change of course by implementing the plan.
Signal to Iran's allies in the region
The anti-jihad operation in Gaza is a continuation of a campaign in the West Bank that has been going on for months. Since a wave of terror in Israel in the spring, the army there has stepped up its efforts to dismantle the jihad infrastructure - especially in the northern city of Jenin. Some of the Palestinian assassins came from this place, which is known as a stronghold of militant Palestinians. In the most recent attacks, Israel has managed to kill the military leaders of jihad in the Gaza Strip.
The Iran-funded organization is considered even more radical than the Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip, also an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Both organizations rely on the armed struggle against Israel. However, the jihad is even more uncompromising than Hamas, which, as the de facto government in the Gaza Strip, also sees itself responsible for the well-being of the civilian population. Most recently, there was an eleven-day armed conflict last year, which severely damaged the jihad as well as a campaign in 2019.
With the latest success, Israel is also taking a stand against further threats in the region, say experts. A warning is also to be sent to Hezbollah, a Shiite militia in Lebanon that has close ties to Israel's archenemy Iran. Negotiations on the sea border between the two countries are currently underway, mediated by the USA. Large natural gas deposits are suspected in the disputed area. Drone attacks from Lebanon have fueled fears of a further escalation in recent weeks.
