The President of the island nation of Sri Lanka banned fertilizers and pesticides. It was the starting signal for a deep economic and political crisis.
Sri Lanka seemed to be a stand-up country that, despite many problems, always seemed to find smart solutions. There are immense tensions between the individual ethnic groups. But the Tamils' war of secession, which sought to wrest control of the north and east of the island from the capital, ended after 26 bloody years in 2009 with the defeat of the "Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam". There was the terror of radical Islamists, who killed at least 253 people in the 2019 Easter attack on Christian churches and luxury hotels and yet could not unite any significant followers of the Muslim minority behind them. There were economic crises and widespread corruption. Nevertheless, a solid middle class with good income and a high level of education developed in the 22 million population. The government even seemed to be getting a grip on the consequences of the Covid lockdown, which were particularly painful for Sri Lanka, which is dependent on tourism.
And so the parliamentary elections in August 2020 were seen by many as a confirmation of course while at the same time committing to reforms. A turnout of 71 percent during the pandemic seemed sensational and seemed to indicate Sri Lanka as a mature democracy. The brand new party of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, elected just a year earlier, won more than two-thirds of the seats in parliament. The president and former lieutenant colonel was known as a tough dog, nicknamed "Terminator" even in his own family for his ruthless crackdown on the Tamil separatists.
On the other hand, Gotabaya promised a new, better policy, a green vision. He described his election campaign as "CO2-neutral" because he did without plastic flags and campaign posters and had trees planted where carbon dioxide was released to compensate. In addition, he promised, agriculture, which is particularly famous for its tea plantations, would be completely freed from chemicals under him.
Sri Lanka was the first country in the world to have an organic label on every food, every fruit and every tea leaf - that sounded good and was accompanied by import restrictions on fruit, vegetables and spices. Because all of this can also be grown and produced locally, says Gotabaya. He wanted to steer the island, which is exposed to geostrategic greed, more towards Asia in terms of foreign policy and, above all, orient it towards India's non-aligned course.
In fact, restrictions on imports in 2020 pushed Sri Lanka into a trade surplus for the first time since the economy opened up globally in 1977. Goods worth US$1.02 billion were exported and exported for US$961 million.
But the second vision turned out to be a catastrophic mistake: On April 26, 2021, Sri Lanka's government banned the import and use of all chemical fertilizers, pesticides, weed killers and fungicides. In a survey by the Verité Research Institute, 85 percent of farmers warned that their yields would then shrink. They protested in the thousands on the streets.
In fact, the crop failures were huge. Rice cultivation plummeted by 30 to 40 percent and maize production by 50 percent - mind you, in a situation in which food imports had been artificially reduced. Inflation, which stood at 3.7 percent in January 2021, rose to 14 percent by December. By May 2022, it had climbed to 45.3 percent. The prices for tomatoes and carrots even increased to five times the previous year's level. People queue up to 14 hours before groceries, parents live on rice for weeks and reserve what few vegetables they can get for their starving children.
"It was an unnecessary experiment," Jeevika Weerahewa, an agricultural economist at Sri Lanka's Peradeniya University, told Reuters. When the government finally allowed private farmers to use chemical fertilizers again in November, Weerahewa predicted that the move came too late: "The time for applying fertilizer to rice is over and the crop will not recover. Also world prices [for fertilizers] have more than doubled and there are no suppliers."
Only three months later, the shortage of fertilizers on the world market became even more dramatic when Russia invaded Ukraine. The two countries are among the most important fertilizer producers on the world market.
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over in May to replace President Mahinda Rajapaksa's brother, who was ousted by the nationwide protests, sheepishly admitted right at the beginning of his term in office that no more fertilizers could be expected for the so-called "Yala season" from May to August . But "measures have been taken to ensure adequate supplies for the Maha season [September to March]."
But the lifting of the import ban initially only affected fertilizers for tea, coconut and rubber, the most important agricultural export goods. And anyway, the soils don't recover that quickly. The coming harvest will also fall well short of expectations, says Buddhi Marambe, Professor of Agriculture at Peradeniya University. Therefore, prices are likely to rise further in the coming months.
Wickremesinghe, 73, was proclaimed interim president in July after thousands of angry protesters stormed Gotabaya's residence and Gotabaya fled abroad. In view of the economic devastation in Sri Lanka, it is unlikely that the previously peaceful protesters will accept the lawyer and professional politician as the new head of state in the long term.
Sri Lanka is currently looking for ways to reduce the immense debt burden, especially to China, India and Japan. It needs funding to import fuel as well as fertilizer. While the West is primarily focused on Russia's war against Ukraine, Beijing has signaled a readiness for talks. The heavily indebted island urgently needs market reforms and a pragmatic policy that takes into account environmental concerns as well as secure economic and agricultural bases for feeding the population. Green experiments should not be repeated by Sri Lankan politicians, especially when they completely ignore the farmers' experiences.
Ansgar Graw heads the Asia media program of the Singapore-based Konrad Adenauer Foundation. He is a journalist and author.
