They will not be eliminated but they have very limited chances of winning the second round. These three ministers could be forced to resign next week if they are defeated by candidates from the union of left in their constituencies during the first round legislative elections on Sunday, June 12.
The Ecological Transition is the former juppeiste in Essonne, where she was parachuted. She does not live in the constituency and cannot vote for her.
She qualified for the second round on Sunday with 31.46%. This is a poor result against Jerome Guedj (38.31%), his Nupes competitor. The minister has a limited number of votes to win: Lisa Haddad (RN), the third-placed candidate, won 10.62%, beating candidate LR by 5.96%.
Similar fight for Stanislas Guerini (ex-head of the presidential party) in an unfavorable Parisian ballot. This district includes the 17th and18th arrondissements of Paris. With 32.50% of vote, Lea Balage El Mariky, deputy mayor and Nupes-invested environmental candidate, placed first in the ballot.
Even if he is not in a good position at the end the first round, he could win the second. This is because he will be able to recover the votes of the third force, which was candidate LR Alix Bougeret. He received 13.16 % of vote. 5,204 votes. This reserve could be used to make up the difference of approximately 2,500 votes between the minister and the outgoing deputy.
The Minister Delegate for Europe appears to be the most insecure. Candidat in Paris' 7th district (which covers the 4th, 11th, and 12th arrondissements) he finished in second place with 35.81%. He was behind Nupes Caroline Mecary who came first with 41.40%.
Clement Beaune seems unlikely to catch up in this constituency, which is marked on the right. Clement Beaune might be able to benefit from a vote transfer from Aurelien Veron (LR candidate), who was third with 5.06% vote. However, this may not be enough for him to catch up with Nupes candidate.
Particularly since many "small" left-wing candidates were present in the constituency. Their transfer of votes to Nupes could boost the already high score. Rodrigue Flahaut - Prevot, representing the Radical Left Party, got 2.38%. This is ahead of the three dissident candidates for the environment, who collectively get around 5%.
All the results from the first round are available here:
