He's at zero. Bank of America's bull-bear indicator can't go any lower. The indicator measures the mood on the financial market based on the positioning of investors, and they are currently as pessimistic as they were at the height of the financial crisis or at the beginning of the corona pandemic. So the bears are dominating, while the always optimistic bulls are gone. In the past, such a mood was always a clear buy signal, because after that things went up steeply.
Does that also apply now? WELT asked 14 asset managers across Germany what they are currently advising their customers to do - get in or stay away? And if they recommend buying: Which stocks are interesting now? The results of the poll are surprisingly clear, and the tips include many well-known names.
Most investment professionals follow a piece of advice that legendary investor Warren Buffett once put: "Be greedy when others are fearful." Other big names in finance put it differently, but meant the same thing: Then when no one dares, stocks to buy when everyone is looking pessimistic, then you should get in.
In fact, 13 of the 14 asset managers surveyed now see this time as coming. "Anyone who is already invested in shares can buy," says Holger Schmitz from the Swiss asset manager Schmitz, for example
For most experts, the low ratings are one of the main reasons. "A large number of companies are listed with price-earnings ratios below ten," says Frank Krekel from Unikat Vermögensverwaltung in Koblenz. Values around 15 or higher are common. The book value, which includes all of a company's assets, is now often greater than the market value – another classic sign of undervaluation. "And many companies have dividend yields in the high single-digit percentage range," says Krekel.
"In addition, many institutional investors are sitting on the largest cash reserves since the attacks of September 11, 2001," adds Titus C. Schlösser from Portfolio Concept in Cologne. "This money will soon be reinvested and should support share prices." So now is a good time to start getting back into business.
The experts do see risks here: high inflation, interest rate hikes, a possible gas supply freeze by Russia, the looming recession. However, one should not mix business news with market news, warns Franz Kaim from Kidros Vermögensverwaltung in Stuttgart. "In this way, successful listed corporations, which often come from established, defensive sectors such as the healthcare sector or the food industry, can withstand the economic headwind quite well."
And yet, of course, the stock market can still go down further. “However, private investors should not develop the sporting ambition of wanting to get to the bottom,” advises Andre Koppers, Managing Director of Oberbanscheidt
"For long-term investors, it doesn't really matter whether they enter the market 200 Dax points higher or lower." Because in ten years that won't matter anymore - and that should be the investment horizon. "Buying shares to only hold them for a year or two is never a advisable idea," says Petra Ahrens from Maiestas Vermögensmanagement in Cologne. So not now.
Most experts have another tip: start in stages, i.e. buy shares or index funds spread over several weeks or even months. "At the same time, investors should continue to hold part of their liquidity, since a new sell-off cannot be ruled out," says Uwe Wiesner from Hansen
Even when it comes to stock selection, the experts basically agree: quality is the order of the day. "It is important to rely on good companies with established and sustainable business models," says Titus C. Schlösser. In addition, the companies should have a sustainable competitive advantage and a dominant market position.
"Cautious investors invest primarily in pharmaceutical stocks and companies providing basic services," concludes Wolfgang Juds, Managing Director of Credo Vermögensmanagement in Nuremberg. He and the other experts cite companies such as Deutsche Telekom, RWE, Novo Nordisk, Nestlé, Danone and Johnson as examples
"Aggressive investors, on the other hand, are starting to take heart in small and mid-cap companies and high-quality, low-leverage technology stocks," adds Juds. Companies such as SAP, ASML, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft, which are mentioned again and again by asset managers, come from this area.
Gerhard Friedenberger, asset manager from Deggendorf, also advises only selecting companies from countries that are as far as possible unaffected by state political intervention.
Caution is therefore advisable, especially in China, because the regime there has intervened massively in the business models over the past two years, especially in the case of technology companies. In addition, the zero-Covid strategy, which the rulers there are still brutally implementing without regard for losses, is putting an extreme strain on the economy.
But what about that lone voice among the 14 wealth managers surveyed who sees the situation very differently? "In no case do I see a time to get started now," says Ulrich Seemann, asset manager from Schwäbisch Gmünd. Given the current situation - war, recession, energy supply problems, supply chain disruptions - one should not hope for significant price increases.
"I would only see an entry signal at prices of 10,500 to 11,000 points in the Dax." That would mean a further fall in the price of around 15 percent. The bears would have to stay in power for quite a while longer, or new shocks would have to shake the financial markets. However, nobody can predict that. Only one thing is certain: there will no longer be more pessimists among investors than at present, the bull-bear indicator cannot fall below zero.
"Everything on shares" is the daily stock exchange shot from the WELT business editorial team. Every morning from 7 a.m. with our financial journalists. For stock market experts and beginners. Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Amazon Music and Deezer. Or directly via RSS feed.
