The Ministry of Economics compiles a situation report on the supply of oil and coal in the fall. The conclusion is bleak. Above all, the low water levels in inland waterways make transport difficult, and rail is not a real alternative either. Two regions would be particularly badly off.
The federal government fears problems with the coal supply for power plants and the oil supply in eastern Germany in the autumn and winter. "Due to the very limited inland waterway transport, the coal stocks that have been built up could quickly be reduced," says the "Energy Supply Situation Report" of the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
"The additional warehouses that were and are still being procured in southern Germany will most likely not be filled until winter...", it says with a view to Baden-Württemberg. The main reason is the low water level of the Rhine, which does not allow larger coal transports by ship. A significant improvement is not to be expected here. The congested rail network also makes delivery by train difficult. The power plant operator EnBW is faced with a challenge: either coal is used sparingly, in which the systems are started up and shut down as required, according to the situation report. However, this greatly increases the risk of power plant failures. On the other hand, regular use leads to significant additional consumption.
The federal government passed a regulation on Wednesday according to which coal and oil transports should be given priority by rail. Nevertheless, there is little confidence in the paper dated Tuesday: Due to various factors such as construction sites, bottlenecks in vehicles and incidents, there are delays and bottlenecks in rail freight transport, it is said. "Planned work by Deutsche Bahn in the Rhine Valley could further aggravate the situation..." Hard coal comes mainly along the Rhine line from North Sea ports such as Rotterdam.
While the government sees the coal supply situation in the south-west critically, the north-east is particularly affected when it comes to oil supplies. The Schwedt and Leuna refineries will have to stop using Russian pipeline oil from the end of the year because of the embargo. This would then at least lead to higher prices: "EU embargo and German exit from pipeline oil with a corresponding lead time by the end of the year would be manageable - albeit with the acceptance of price increases and possible restrictions," it says. Around 75 percent of the Leuna refinery can be supplied with oil via the Polish port of Gdansk. This is contractually secured. Schwedt could also achieve an output of around 75 percent if the pipeline from the port of Rostock was "upgraded immediately".
Schwedt supplies large parts of eastern Germany and also areas of western Poland with fuel - including Berlin Airport. Considerations to also supply the region with refinery products from West Germany are again met with rail bottlenecks: "High demand and scarce transport capacities in the rail freight sector lead to a challenging situation in mineral oil logistics. Some products from refineries cannot be transported away. Some cancellations more than 50 percent of the transports are carried out by rail transport companies."
