With frosty temperatures in the minus range, the starting point for a white Christmas is almost perfect. But at the turn of the week Father Frost is out of breath - plus degrees up to 14 degrees and rain is possible. Weather expert Björn Alexander reveals whether this will remain the case during the holidays.
ntv: Winter has been freezing so far. Will it remain the same on the fourth weekend in Advent?
Björn Alexander: Definitely - and Father Frost is even stepping it up a notch. Because after the brief relief with black ice in the south, the weekend will continue with partly arctic winter weather.
How cold is it getting?
At night it clears up and falls easily to minus 10, sometimes below minus 20 degrees Celsius over the snowy areas. And not in any middle mountain hollows or Alpine valleys, but also in inhabited regions.
And during the day?
Permafrost will continue to prevail. But it stays particularly cold where the fog persists. This is especially true in parts of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, where in the permanent fog, even during the day, there is hardly more than minus 7 or minus 8 degrees.
Obviously a good starting point for a white Christmas. What chances can we calculate?
The starting position is almost perfect - the weather schedule for the next week, however, less so. Because winter really starts to lurch at the turn of the week. And unfortunately sometimes we do too. Mild air with rain meets frozen ground. At the same time, temperatures are widely jumping out of the permafrost. 10 to 14 degrees are possible. Bad for all winter fans - but there is still plenty of excitement.
Why?
Next Tuesday is expected to be the mildest day of the Christmas week. After that, the weather computers again see chances for colder air. This restarts the snow roulette. Especially in the mountains, but sometimes down to lower altitudes in the south. In the rest of the country, we have to keep our fingers crossed.
What do the probabilities say?
The low altitudes in the west are currently at the lower end of around 10 to 20 percent. To the north and east it's about 30 to 40 percent - maybe a little more. The mountains and generally the south are certainly white according to the current trends of the European weather model. However, the American model, which prefers a milder solution, is currently fully opposed.
What weather details can we expect by then?
On the night of Friday, the focus of the smoothness goes south again, where there is new snowfall in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria. Initially, black ice is possible again. Snow showers are still on the way along the coast. Otherwise it will remain dry and frosty with minus 2 to minus 12 degrees. And so, of course, slippery roads due to frost or freezing wetness cannot be ruled out.
And on Friday?
Do you still have to reckon with snow south of the Danube? Also with the option of some snow or sleet, the West and Northwest will go through the day. Otherwise it will remain dry and at times sunny with permafrost temperatures. Only the west and the coastal area get slight plus degrees.
How's the weekend going?
With mostly calm winter weather, which, in addition to the sun, sometimes has persistent fog areas in the program. In the fog it remains freezing cold with minus 8 degrees on Saturday and minus 7 degrees on Sunday. In the rest of the country it is also often frosty and only in the west and north-west does it thaw at 2 to 4 degrees, before rain follows in the far west late Sunday afternoon and evening. Especially in the mountains there is an acute danger of black ice!
Does the smoothness also concern us during Monday rush hour?
From today's perspective, unfortunately yes. The milder air, including rain, spreads to the north and east and hits partly deeply frozen soil. An explosive to flammable mixture with a high risk of slipping. Not only on the streets, but also on the sidewalks and cycle paths. When it comes to black ice, the south will probably be left out, where the beautiful weather will continue. The whole thing at windy 2 to 11 degrees. Only in the Danube fog is there a slight permafrost.
What prospects do the weather computers give us afterwards?
With 10 to 14 degrees in the west and 3 to 8 degrees in the rest of the world, the mildest day of the weather week awaits us. Only on the lower Danube is it still frosty with around 0 degrees. It will remain cloudy or changeable with rain or drizzle in the north-west half, while the south and south-east will get significantly more sun away from the fog. From Wednesday it will be cooler and more changeable overall, with the snow line dropping to around 800 meters for the time being. How far it will go down after that is currently still completely open.
