Since the first weeks of the war, Russia has also occupied southern Ukraine. But in the Cherson region, the troops are spread out on both banks of the huge Dnipro - and possibly cut off from supplies and reinforcements. The bridges over the river are currently apparently impassable for heavy equipment.
The Dnipro is not a normal river. The third longest river in Europe stretches more than 2200 kilometers from Russia and Belarus across Ukraine to the Black Sea. The main waterway of Ukraine passes through the capital Kyiv, the city of the same name Dnipro, Zaporizhia and to some extent divides the country into left and right halves. In southern Ukraine, this could be decisive for the further course of the war.
Because Russian troops are stationed in the area on both sides of the Dnipro. However, between Zaporizhia and Cherson, the river is up to 20 kilometers wide in places. There are therefore only three bridges on the 250-kilometer section of the river to be able to transport supplies overland.
In the past week, however, the Ukrainian military apparently also made the third and final crossing impassable for heavy equipment. The bridge at the Nowa Kakhovka dam, about 50 kilometers east of Cherson, was hit "accurately and effectively" - and apparently badly damaged: Russia is said to no longer be able to transport supplies across the bridge.
Whether the bridge can be repaired is unclear, Wolfgang Richter makes clear in the ntv podcast "Learned again". He is a retired Brigadier General in the Bundeswehr Army and a military expert at the Science and Politics Foundation. "The question is whether this is permanent destruction or whether the bridge can be repaired. Another possibility is to build a makeshift pioneer bridge."
The degree of destruction cannot be independently verified at this time. The strategic importance, on the other hand, very much so. "This is an area that is under Russian control, which lies west of the Dnipro, with the regional capital of Cherson and the surrounding area," says Richter.
Shortly after the start of the invasion at the end of February, Russian troops marched into the southern Ukrainian area around Cherson. Since then they have occupied the area where the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which came under fire, is located.
The 1,300 meter long Antonivka Bridge on the eastern outskirts of Cherson is also of great importance. For the Russians, the Antonivka conquest was strategic in creating a direct route from annexed Crimea to central Ukraine. After the original war plan to overrun Ukraine in a few days failed, the huge river is now becoming more and more of a problem for the Russians.
Two of the three Dnipro bridges in the south were attacked by Ukraine several weeks ago: the Antonivka road bridge and the railway bridge six kilometers to the east. Both Dnipro crossings can apparently no longer be used to transport supplies after the Ukrainian rocket fire.
Finally, last week Ukraine reported shelling on the third bridge at the Nowa Kakhovka dam, a good 50 kilometers downstream. Since then, the Russian troops on the west bank of the river can only be supplied via pontoon bridges and makeshift ferries or from the air.
"Of course, it's very tedious now to reload the logistics onto lighter wagons, to build engineer or pontoon bridges or even to regulate the logistics with boats," says expert Richter, who nevertheless does not assume that the bridges for the Russian troops will continue to be used course of the war are no longer usable. "I rather believe that the possibilities of repairing bridges are already being used, even if only temporarily. And of course the Russians are also taking risks to ensure supplies. That means the damaged bridges are being used somehow. At the risk of that maybe one or the other won't get to the other shore."
Wolfgang Richter does not expect the supply routes to be completely sealed off, “especially since there is also the option of supplying helicopters”.
Should the bridges nevertheless not be usable in the long term, the situation for the Russians would deteriorate. The British military intelligence service had already declared the bridges to be the "central weak point of the Russian armed forces" in July. The American "Institute for the Study of War" agrees: In the long run it is "impractical if not impossible" to only rely on makeshift bridges or ferries to supply the troops on the other bank.
That could corner Russian troops in the south and pave the way for large-scale Ukrainian gains. "What we have seen so far from the Ukrainian side are spectacular fireworks with long-range weapons, mainly western weapons, on depots, command posts and bridges. What we have not seen, however, is the use of these fireworks for movement," analyzes expert Richter in the podcast.
So far, Ukraine has not been able to make any far-reaching reconquests in the south. Most military observers are convinced that there are no weapons or soldiers. "These are rather small-scale operations, so far it is not the big offensive. A large-scale attack operation requires the expansion of fire and movement."
Officials also say that it will take a while before Cherson is recaptured. The people there should "be patient for a while," said Ukrainian General Dmytro Marchenko in an interview.
A key question is how the Russians prepared to defend the area. "Things could turn around if the Russians now cling to the remains of the wall while the Ukrainians all around them try to use artillery to push their way forward," says former General Richter, drawing attention to the special characteristics of close combat. "City and house combat is a very bloody endeavor where the advantages of range no longer apply, where you try to destroy cover with concentrated artillery fire." As a consequence, this leads to the large-scale destruction of cities. "The Ukrainians will then be placed in this position."
According to British intelligence reports, Russia has sent long convoys of military trucks, tanks and artillery from the Donbass south in recent days to provide support. Additional military personnel are also said to have been stationed in the annexed Crimea in order to be able to fend off Ukraine's counter-offensive.
However, it seems that the Ukrainians are currently trying to wear down and starve the Russian troops in the south instead of attacking them on a large scale. Cutting off supply lines is essential for this.
The Russian reinforcements from the Donbass may even come in handy for the Ukrainian military. All the more soldiers could be disabled in a short time, says General Marchenko. All the more Russian troops can be isolated, surrounded and cut off from supply lines.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Moscow is trying to lure Ukrainian troops into the Donbass with a new offensive in the east. "Apparently they still have enough resources to form a counter-focus," concluded Richter at "Learned Again".
Kyiv, on the other hand, is banking on the south, where the American HIMARS missiles and western artillery are more effective than in Donbass because the front is more linear and the Russians cannot attack from three sides at once. Thanks be to the Dnipro and its few bridges.
