Vladimir Putin has been the most powerful man in Russia for almost 23 years. But the Russian President is now 70 years old - and since the attack on Ukraine there have been repeated speculations about a serious illness.
Vladimir Putin can remain President of Russia until 2036. The sole ruler in the Kremlin achieved this two years ago with the constitutional amendment: in 2024 and 2030 he is likely to stand in the presidential elections for the fifth and sixth time. For several years now, however, there have been rumors that Putin is suffering from a serious illness. The face of the Russian president often appears bloated, the gait is wooden, and his hands tremble. But there is no evidence for this.
What is certain is that Putin's biological clock is also ticking. On October 7, the head of the Kremlin turned 70. He has already exceeded the average life expectancy of Russian men by three years. What would happen if Putin died during his presidency? On paper, this is regulated more or less clearly in the Russian constitution, says Fabian Burkhardt from the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Research in Regensburg in the ntv podcast "Learned again".
Should the Russian president suddenly die, the prime minister - Mikhail Mishustin since 2020 - would be appointed interim president. "With almost all the powers that Putin also has. That includes, for example, deciding on the use of nuclear weapons," explains Burkhardt. The interim head of state should not just dissolve the State Duma, call a national referendum or initiate a constitutional amendment.
Instead, the interim president would have to call new elections within three months. According to the constitution, the exact date of the election must be determined by the Russian Federation Council within two weeks. This is the upper chamber of the Russian parliament. If that doesn't happen, it's up to the Central Electoral Commission to call new elections. "That applies in the event that the president dies or is otherwise unfit to hold office. That could also be a serious illness. It's not clearly defined what could cause him to be unfit to be exercise office," said Burkhardt.
In Putin's early days, at the beginning of the millennium, attempts were made to make the constitution clearer on this issue, explains the Russia expert. The Parliament, the Duma, also submitted a request to the Constitutional Court.
However, the project came to nothing - possibly not without reason, says Burkhardt: The health of the president is still a question of national security in Russia. Putin and his companions try to keep the topic as secret as possible. Nothing should leak out. "Ideally, there would be a medical commission that would be set up by parliament and, in the event of health problems, would decide whether the president was able to exercise his office," Burkhardt explains long-forgotten plans.
The constitutional expert knows that in an authoritarian country there is a wide gap between desire and reality. "When these issues were discussed in the early 2000s, there was a debate about whether the president's immunity would apply to health issues," he says. Can Putin's health be part of the parliamentary or even public debate? Russia says no, a question of national security should not be taken to the Duma and certainly not to the citizens on the streets. This explains why no one knows anything specific about Vladimir Putin's health.
Because if the Kremlin chief were really seriously ill, it would not be an advantage for him if the Russian elites knew. The nominal order of power is quite clearly defined, says Burkhardt. "The President is the highest person in the state, Prime Minister Mishustin comes second, third is Valentina Matviyenko as the Chair of the Federation Council. The fourth person in the hierarchy is Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin." But in a mafia state like Russia, it would not be unlikely that others would also try to grab the Kremlin.
Dmitry Medvedev, for example. The deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council was himself Russian President from 2008 to 2012, but at that time only as a placeholder for Putin. He was not allowed to run for a third time after two consecutive terms. A rule that no longer exists. After his presidency, Medvedev became prime minister, before a new post was created for him in 2020 in a body made up of the most important people in the Russian state apparatus: President Putin, defense ministers, foreign ministers and the director of the national guard.
"If Putin were no longer able to exercise his office, power would formally pass to Mishustin. Why should he reject his claim to power? At the same time, there is one person in Medvedev who is not entirely clear whether he is number five in the hierarchy or not is actually on the same level as the prime minister," analyzes Fabian Burkhardt. "In such a situation, would Medvedev also lay claim to the position of interim president?"
In principle, the Russia expert considers two scenarios to be realistic. Scenario number one: disputes arise within the elites who want to become successors. Supposed rules in the constitution are obsolete because nobody sticks to them. A parliamentary group prevails and sets rules and preferred candidates for the re-election of the president.
scenario two? It is going according to the constitution: Mishustin becomes interim president and new elections are held within the first three months.
One can only speculate about who will eventually become Putin's successor. But it is "clearly too early" for that, warns Burkhardt in "Learned again". From Putin's point of view, it is understandable not to establish a clear number two. Such a "crown prince" regulation would certainly lead to conflicts in the background. Putin cannot and will not want that. This is also one reason why Putin has ruled untouchable in the Kremlin for almost 23 years now.
"Uncertainty is part of Putin's retention of power," Moscow-based political scientist Jens Siegert from the Heinrich Böll Foundation recently told ntv.de. "Everyone depends on Putin in some way." Three days before the war began, the Kremlin chief demonstrated his power. One by one, all members of the State Security Council were forced to stand up and support Putin's actions. "It looked a bit like the mafia, where a gun is handed to the newcomer so that he can commit murder. Only then does he belong. But then he can't get out," Siegert compares.
Russia's president is still firmly in the saddle because of such methods. However, his fate no longer depends only on his health, but also on the further course of the war in Ukraine. If things continue to go badly for the Russians, at some point Putin will also have problems.
