The nuclear power plant dispute is finally over for now. But Olaf Scholz' word of power only knows losers: from the chancellor to Christian Lindner to the Greens and the traffic light as a whole - not to mention the voters.
No sooner was Chancellor Olaf Scholz's historic letter public than FDP chairman Christian Lindner felt compelled to tweet a little jubilation early on Monday evening. "The continued use of the Emsland nuclear power plant is an important contribution to grid stability, electricity costs and climate protection." Therefore, the decision, which Scholz was only able to enforce using his policy competence, found the full approval of the Liberals.
Lindner had forced this Basta because the FDP, after being kicked out of the Lower Saxony state parliament, no longer wanted anything to do with the agreement made in the traffic light coalition to only keep the two southern German nuclear power plants running and only actually use them in emergencies. But Lindner's political success is of no use to anyone. All he did was set off a pathetic traffic light spectacle: it was all about power politics, with no benefit for the voters.
In no scenario was there a threat of grid stability problems in the north in the coming winter. Not only does it have a lot of wind turbines, but unlike the south it also has reliable gas pipelines with no connection to Russia. The continued operation of Emsland also makes no difference to the electricity price. Whether the fuel rods of the Emsland nuclear power plant, which are almost used up, will be used up by the end of the year or remain in operation at a lower load beyond the turn of the year is a zero-sum game for the electricity market when calculated over the entire winter. On the contrary: when the wind blows strongly, even cheaper producing wind turbines have to be switched off because nuclear power plants cannot be started up and shut down at will. This in turn calls into question the contribution of the Emsland nuclear power plant to climate protection.
Scholz also knows this, who does not blindly trust his Federal Minister of Economics and yet agreed to Robert Habeck's plan for an operational reserve for the Isar 2 and Neckarwestheim 2 nuclear power plants and an end to the Emsland nuclear power plant before the Lower Saxony elections. Unfortunately, Scholz did not publicly justify his decision, which he had pushed through with all the Chancellor's power, on Monday evening. Otherwise he might have had to answer the question of what new knowledge he has gained since last week in order to respond to the FDP demands. Such knowledge should not exist. The only new thing is that the FDP and CDU/CSU have successfully given large parts of the public the impression that the Emsland nuclear power plant could make an important difference in the energy crisis.
Scholz apparently did not dare to let Lindner run up to his maximum demands. He prefers to expect the unpopular, direct SPD competitors from Bündnis90/Die Grünen to go beyond their approval of the operational reserve made at the party conference on Friday. It was surprising that Habeck said that same evening that he could live with Scholz's dictum. Habeck and Steffi Lemke, the Environment Minister responsible for reactor safety, had explained to their party in Bonn with emotion in their voices that the operational reserve plan was the maximum that can be reasonably expected. Less than 72 hours later, they buckled in front of the Federal Chancellor - glad that they now have a guaranteed phase-out date for all nuclear power plants in April and probably even happier that the current energy roadmap for the winter also makes Scholz and the SPD responsible. The nuclear phase-out is now also Scholz's policy, after the SPD had hit the bush at the expense of the Greens in the gas levy disaster.
Nevertheless, Habeck cannot claim this day as a success either. On Sunday in Bonn, his party was read the riot act by guest speaker Luisa Neubauer, who accused the Greens of making too many tactical compromises to the detriment of environmental and climate protection. The standing ovations of the party congress delegates showed how much Neubauer had struck a chord. Now Habeck has to explain to his family why the Greens in the Bundestag should agree to a de facto third extension of the service life for all three nuclear power plants, even if only by three months.
The opponents of nuclear power are right in their fear that this decision is not the end of the nuclear power in Germany song. The Union advocates the purchase of new fuel rods for the difficult winter of 2024, and it is only a matter of time before the FDP makes corresponding demands again. Because Lindner's supposed success against Habeck will hardly lift the Liberals to new poll heights. On the contrary: Lindner's own rhetoric reinforces the impression that the FDP supports an ideological left-wing government - political responsibility or not. The Union can only with difficulty damage the image that right-wing and liberal voters have of the traffic light as badly as Lindner sometimes manages in a tweet.
The spiral of liberal profile neurosis will probably continue to turn and the Greens will ask themselves what else they should concede to the smallest of the three coalition partners. In any case, no new fuel rods, because they would be purchased not just for one but for several years. But that cannot be done with the Greens and large parts of the SPD. Then the FDP will try to work out its own brand core against its own coalition elsewhere. Further conflicts are inevitable, but the chancellor cannot decide them by repeatedly referring to his authority to set guidelines. Its potency is like that of the fuel rods in the Emsland nuclear power plant: it is quickly used up.
