Only five countries are voting at the United Nations against condemning Russia for the illegal annexations in Ukraine. They all have in common the rejection of democracy and human rights and they are among the most isolated countries in the world. And this is also Russia's new reality.
Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Nicaragua - these are Russia's best friends. At least if you look at the outcome of the UN resolution on Russia's annexations in Ukraine. These four dictatorships, along with Russia itself, voted against condemning the annexations of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. 143 states voted in favor of the resolution, 35 abstained, 10 countries did not take part in the vote.
The resolution has no meaning under international law, but it does have a high symbolic value. The result shows how isolated Russia is in the world community. Even former important partners such as China or India have abstained and are increasingly moving away from Moscow, says Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich in the "Stern" podcast "Ukraine - the situation". More and more countries are affected by the effects of the war. China and India are "extremely concerned about the nuclear issue."
According to Masala, important allies are alienated because of the nuclear threats. "At the same time, those who hoped that the Russian Federation would win the war relatively quickly are extremely disappointed with the course of the war. They see Russia's problems." As a result, Russia is increasingly becoming an "international pariah state that no one wants to play with anymore," the military expert explains, explaining the disengagement of some states.
Russia's side are now only countries that do not see things so closely with democracy and human rights. For example Belarus, Moscow's closest ally. Dictator Alexander Lukashenko has allowed the Russians to attack Ukraine from Belarus. Most recently, Lukashenko also signed a military pact with Putin. This stipulates that both countries can form and send joint troops. Although experts do not believe that Belarus is actually sending its own soldiers to Ukraine, the deal shows how closely the two countries are connected. Belarus is economically and politically completely dependent on Russia.
Syria is also a close ally of Russia. Moscow's troops have helped dictator Bashar al-Assad stay in power in recent years. Putin supports Assad in the civil war and has entire cities bombed. Assad's troops now control about two-thirds of Syria again - also because of the help from Russia.
One country that is well versed in isolation is North Korea. Russia is one of the few countries that has friendly relations with the Kim regime. Both states even share a 17-kilometer border. Here, too, North Korea's economic dependency is likely to be the reason for the Kremlin's vote at the United Nations.
There are mainly military relations between Russia and Nicaragua. Moscow has stationed soldiers in the Central American country, and there are joint military exercises with Nicaragua's army. And dictator Daniel Ortega even signed a decree in the summer that allows the Russians to send even more troops. With its vote for Russia, Nicaragua underscores its closeness to the Kremlin.
Good relations between the two countries go back to the 1980s. At that time, rebels had waged a guerrilla war against the left-wing government of Nicaragua. Nicaragua received arms and ammunition from the Soviet Union to put down the rebels. The regime has maintained good contact with Moscow to this day.
But Nicaragua is an exception. The fact that only four states are voting alongside Russia is a disastrous result, analyzes ntv-Russia correspondent Rainer Munz. "This result can no longer be glossed over. The numbers are clear. Everyone here in Russia will understand that too."
At the beginning of March, the United Nations had already given a clear vote against Russia. At that time, a vote was taken to condemn Russia's attack on Ukraine and to ask the Kremlin to leave Ukraine. The result was almost the same as it was in October. In addition to Russia itself, Belarus, Syria and North Korea also voted against the resolution - and Eritrea.
Eritrea is sometimes called the "North Korea of Africa" because of its isolation. The country is struggling with Western sanctions and has therefore long sought cooperation with Russia. For the Kremlin, Eritrea is strategically interesting because of its location on the Red Sea.
But Eritrea abstained from the resolution on the annexations - unlike Nicaragua, which abstained in March and now clearly sided with Russia.
Otherwise there are hardly any differences in the voting behavior of the individual states compared to the resolution in March. Bangladesh and the African countries of Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Morocco and Senegal abstained or did not vote at all, but this time they condemned Russia. Djibouti, Lesotho, Sao Tome and Principe, Honduras and Thailand still voted against Russia in March, but abstained or did not vote on the annexation question.
What is more significant for Russia, however, is that China and India abstained on both occasions. Moscow maintains close relations with both states. However, Beijing and New Delhi apparently do not want to jeopardize their economic relations with the West. China and India cannot escape the pressure, especially from the USA.
Despite everything, Russia has been claiming for months that it has excellent international relations and is not isolated. With the result of the UN resolution, however, this argument has finally been refuted, says political scientist Thomas Jäger on ntv. "The fact that China and India abstained has to do with certain aspects of this resolution and with a general policy of balance. They don't want to give Russia the last shock."
Jäger believes that the more decisive question is whether China and India will continue to observe or circumvent western sanctions against Russia. "We have to see whether India will continue to buy discounted Russian oil on a large scale in the near future or participate in the upcoming initiative to introduce an oil price cap."
In any case, Russia has so far failed to win China and India over to its side on the Ukraine issue. That also didn't work out eight years ago after the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. At that time, too, both states abstained from the United Nations. Overall, however, the result was much lower than it is now. At that time, 58 countries abstained and 11 voted against "Ukraine's territorial integrity". So Russia's circle of friends has shrunk significantly.
(This article was first published on Saturday, October 15, 2022.)
