The statements by Maria Pastukhova and Mathias Koch are unmistakable: "In Germany, gas bills will remain twice as high by 2030," explain the two researchers from the E3G think tank in ntv's "Climate Laboratory". Because the cheap gas from Russian pipelines will never come back, they are convinced. Therefore, Germany should not try to rebuild old capacities with new infrastructure for liquid gas, but significantly reduce its consumption. How? "Especially with heat pumps and renovations," say Pashukova and Koch in the second part of the interview. This requires political creativity, clear guidelines and planning security for companies. But so far there is very little to see.
ntv.de: You have already given a number of arguments as to why German gas volumes can no longer be increased to old capacities after the Russian attack on Ukraine. They wouldn't think it particularly smart to try that, either. Instead, we should reduce our consumption. You say that you can save a lot in the building sector. How?
Mathias Koch: Mainly with heat pumps and renovations. The federal government is also striving for this in part, there are heat pump summits in the Federal Ministry of Economics. But the question we ask ourselves is: Why is there such a stark disparity between the €200 billion double boom, as the Chancellor comic-likely called it, and meeting with industry to fund a few more heat pumps ? Much more would have to happen on the second side. It will not be possible to significantly reduce gas consumption within a year. This is possible in the medium term, but this requires appropriate signals for the manufacturers.
Perhaps there are doubts about the time horizon. How do we intend to turn things around by the end of the decade?
Mathias Koch: The federal government's current target for heat pumps is 500,000 per year from 2025. Heat pump associations say that more could be achieved. Ultimately, it's different manufacturers who have their investment cycles and hire skilled workers to make these heat pumps. But for that they need planning security. Currently there are not - only well-intentioned appeals, some of which are thwarted by opposing developments. For example, from 2024, every newly installed heating system should have a 65 percent share of renewable energies. That would de facto amount to a heat pump obligation. But we could see many exceptions, so that it might still be possible to install a gas boiler in 2026. If you act with such mixed signals, heating manufacturers will of course ask themselves what exactly they should actually invest in. The situation is similar with the renovations.
Maria Pastukhova: We focused too much on this winter. The much more serious problem is the next two or three winters. Because this year we filled the gas storage tanks halfway with Russian gas. Next year that will no longer be possible. In other words, the sooner we start reducing our consumption, the better. It would have been possible to see the first effects in a year or two. But for that we should have started this year.
In Berlin, almost 20,000 gas lanterns are to be converted to LED operation. Everyone agrees it needs to be done because it reduces energy use by 95 percent. Nevertheless, the conversion will take at least ten years, because the companies only manage 2000 lights a year. That's eight per working day. People are missing for more. But when it comes to heat pumps, if the entire building stock is to be renovated and insulated... How is that supposed to work at a reasonable speed when it fails because of 20,000 gas lanterns, for which planning security is given.
Mathias Koch: I can't say for the lamps, but for the other things it's clear: the more planning security, the better. Maybe we can take a step back. Shouldn't we do anything because there might be trouble? This is a question of the will to shape things and political creativity. When it comes to refurbishment, the solution is to provide targeted funding so that people who want to refurbish their house have the appropriate funds. But you can also work with regulatory law and prescribe restructuring. Ideally both together.
Where is the political will to shape the traffic light in these areas? She is committed to progress, that's what the coalition agreement says. How can it be that a wealthy industrial nation cannot mobilize sufficient resources for 800,000 or a million heat pumps a year?
It seems more complicated to use the existing potential than to build new things like LNG terminals.
Maria Pasthukova: Unfortunately, that's actually true. If you look at the time within which an LNG terminal can be built, it is a lot faster than obtaining a building permit for a wind turbine or a solar park. This discrepancy is catastrophic. This is also a European problem, Germany is not alone. But that urgently needs to be solved, because we have to decarbonize quickly, expand distribution grids and renewables... That only works with investment security. We don't have that.
But the shortage of skilled workers is real, that's a bottleneck. How do you intend to retrain enough people to become solar or wind engineers by the end of the decade?
Mathias Koch: Fortunately, we live in a market economy that is ideal for solving such problems - if given the right guidelines. That's the bottom line. If the specifications are correct, the industry will do everything in its own interest to implement them. That doesn't work overnight and of course not without immigration and further training. We are currently seeing the discussion about the immigration of skilled workers. But the decisive announcement must come. A plan is needed on how to proceed with gas consumption in buildings and industry.
Why is it failing? Whether heat pumps, wind turbines or solar energy - many jobs can be created in these sectors with the appropriate funding. Actually exactly what parties like to advertise.
Mathias Koch: Maybe it's because an opposition party is currently part of the government when it comes to climate policy. You just have to state that clearly. You can also see it in the non-efforts of the FDP in the transport sector. Not only environmental organizations and think tanks, but also the independent expert council for climate issues states that the FDP does not even begin to try to achieve legally prescribed climate goals. This is a huge problem.
But the signals can be clearly felt, the demand is there. Despite this, solar installers say: we cannot carry out any further work because the order books are full and there are no people. The same applies to wind turbines and people who are supposed to insulate.
Mathias Koch: Luckily we are seeing increasing demand. But is the political signal strong enough? no Is the funding sufficiently high and backed by regulatory law? no Under certain circumstances, this still tempts a craft business to hesitate when it comes to renovations. As I said, that is political will to shape things: It was no problem to set up an LNG terminal and lay pipelines in six months. We also need this determination for heat pumps and renovations.
Maria Pastukhova: We also saw that it works in the early 2000s. At that time, the solar industry in Germany was growing extremely fast. A lot of jobs have been added. Then the federal government stopped the subsidies and the expansion ended in a flop. If we had done that, we would be in a very different position today.
Clara Pfeffer and Christian Herrmann spoke to Maria Pastukhova and Mathias Koch. The conversation has been shortened and smoothed for better understanding.
