The chancellor's word of power doesn't play a role in this survey - but the SPD gains two percentage points in the RTL and ntv trend barometer, making the biggest leap in a long time.
The new trend barometer from RTL and ntv should make the corners of the mouth twitch in some SPD people - but nothing more. In the week after the election victory in Lower Saxony, the Chancellor's Party made the biggest jump in months and gained two percentage points in the voters' favour. 20 percent would vote for the SPD if there were a federal election now - the party last ranked that high in the Forsa poll in July. In the federal elections last September, they came to 25.7 percent.
The Social Democrats are thus on par with the Greens, who have remained at 20 percent for four weeks. The strongest forces remain the CDU and CSU, which now come to 27 percent (-1), the FDP remains the same at 6 percent. The AfD settles in at a strong 14 percent, the best value this year. The left, on the other hand, falls back below the five percent hurdle to 4 percent. As in the past few weeks, 9 percent of those surveyed would choose other parties.
If you could elect the Federal Chancellor directly, the incumbent would get the most votes. 23 percent would choose Olaf Scholz. That's one point less than in the previous week, but still significantly more support than CDU leader Friedrich Merz and Robert Habeck would get from the Greens. The two would come to 19 percent. Habeck is two points better than a week ago, but significantly worse than in the summer. In July, 31 percent wanted the economics minister as head of government. Merz convinces just 52 percent of its own followers. Scholz and Habeck build on around two thirds of approval in their own ranks
On the other hand, 21 percent would choose Annalena Baerbock as Chancellor. The Foreign Minister thus gains a point compared to the previous week. If the Green politician ran again, 21 percent would choose Merz and 24 percent Scholz.
The economic expectations of those surveyed continue to look bleak, even if the outlook is brightening slightly. 73 percent still assume that Germany's economic situation will deteriorate in the coming years. But at the end of September it was still 78 percent. Accordingly, 12 percent now believe that the situation will improve. That's only one point more than in the previous week, but still six more than at the beginning of August. In January, i.e. before the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, it was still 23 percent. At that time, only 53 percent believed that the situation would get worse.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from October 11 to 17, 2022. Database: 2505 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 2.5 percentage points.
More information about Forsa here.Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.
