Donald Trump has announced a major statement for Tuesday. But after the Republican Party's poor performance in the US general election, doubts have been raised as to whether the 76-year-old in Florida really says he's running again.
Before the congressional elections, Donald Trump promised a giant red wave, a Republican triumph. In the end, it will only be a trickle that gives Republicans a small majority in the House of Representatives - and even that is not entirely certain.
This is the worst news for Republicans and the best news for Joe Biden. Because the 46th President of the United States has already proven in the first two years that he can also convince opponents of his ideas. He won over 13 Republican members of the House of Representatives on the Infrastructure Act and 14 on the Gun Control Act. He can do that again in the new Congress, which will be officially sworn in on January 3.
After this messed-up election, the Republicans are facing a crucial test, a duel: Trump supporters against moderates. That's why everyone is curious to see whether the ex-president in Florida will come out on Tuesday and announce that he will be running for a third time. After one win and one loss, he would then go into his third campaign for the White House - assuming he prevails in the Republican primary.
The fact that Trump is getting clarity speaks in favor of announcing it now. Trump would rally the loyal supporters in the Republican Party behind him and thus set an example in the party's internal power struggle against everyone who blames him for the poor election result. The danger: if there are not enough Trump loyalists, it would be with his good prospects for the candidacy.
From the Trump team’s point of view, this is also supported by the fact that the field of applicants would be sorted according to their expectations. Some candidates, such as Nikki Haley, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, could opt out. She said in April she would not run if Trump was in the running. But that certainly wouldn't stop a candidate like Ron DeSantis, who has just been overwhelmingly re-elected governor and actually sparked a Red Wave in Florida. Neither does Trump's Vice President Mike Pence.
In the Republican party, however, voices are getting louder that want Trump not to announce a candidacy yet. Among other things, because they want to win the one Senate seat that is still up for grabs. Even if it will not change the majority, it has a symbolic value. There will be a runoff in Georgia on December 6th. There, a candidate for a Senate seat must have more than 50 percent of the votes.
Since that was not the case, a vote will be taken again. With the announcement of his candidacy, Trump could mobilize his opponents in particular - that's exactly what happened in 2020 and Trump was the first Republican since 1992 not to be able to win the state. If that were to happen again in the still contested Senate seat, it would be another Republican defeat in this election, which he would be blamed for.
But Trump has put himself under pressure. During the election campaign, he repeatedly toyed with the fact that he "maybe should run again" to the point that he would "very, very, very likely do it again". And then, certainly in anticipation of the enormous electoral success, he named a date: next Tuesday. Letting that day pass without much notice would show that he allows himself to be influenced by the party and could damage his reputation as a strong, undeterred leader. And that's what he wants to prevent most urgently.
