The decontrol of public accounts: Hacienda certifies that Spain will chain at least 17 years in deficit

From 2008 to, at least, 2024. That is the time that Spain will accumulate in a budget deficit situation, that is, 17 years, being totally unable to control their accounts, 17 years in which government alternations have been lived, situations of Crisis, recovery, growth and crisis again. And in all of them, the result has been the same: budget deviation.

It is of a devastating data that, in addition, is very likely to grow even more, since it is very unlikely that the situation of deficit is over 2024. That year is, only, the last year for which the Ministry of Finance It has a deficit estimate, as reflected in the draft General State Budgets (PGE) for 2022 that this week delivered at the Congress of Deputies.

But in that exercise, the figure will still be -3.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and, given the background of Spain in general and this particular government, it seems very feasible that the situation continues in later years. Therefore, it is not much less unleashed that the Spanish economy complete 20 years in a deficit situation. Moreover, it seems more than likely.

The situation of Decontrol began with the first collets of the financial crisis, and the Government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero went from adding three consecutive years of historical surpluses to deviate by 4.5%. Worse was the following year, when it reached 11.2% of GDP, a figure that in relative terms remains the highest of democracy. Further than that registered during the year of the pandemic.

At that year 2009, three exercises were followed between 9% and 10%, with a change of government by means. The executive of Rajoy had penalties was able to change the trend and, despite the years of strong economic growth and recovery, his best data was 3% in 2017. If he compared with the set of years, he could reach To think that this figure was a success, but it is not like that at all. And more if the evolution between the rest of European powers is taken into account.

The Sánchez executive, for its part, closed its first half year of mandate at 2.5%, which is the best data of the entire period analyzed. And already in 2019 something very representative occurred with what Spain is in terms of budget balance. The Ministry of Hacienda first offered a data of 2.6% first, which supposed the first increase since 2012, but before which the Department of Montero did not hesitate to point out that it was a "great containment effort." That affirmation already supposed a certain blushing, but the situation was even worse. Less than a month later, Brussels corrected the official figure transferred by the government and raised it until the final data of 2.8%. The embarrassment was undoubted.

All this process caused that when the crisis derived from Coronavirus exploded, the public debt was 95.5% of GDP, leaving the Executive a very limited fiscal margin to act. The rest of the powers had much more space, and in large part, that's why the crisis in Spain was tougher.

The European Central Bank (ECB) itself certified that Spain was the country of the eurozone that fewer fiscal support lent the economy. That was rebounded by the Ministry of Economy, since, in his opinion, the Films of Temporary Employment Regulation (ERTE) were not accounted for correctly. And it is true that many prestigious economists supported the affirmation of the team of the Calviño Vice President, at the same time highlighting the importance of that measure. But even so, the answer was insufficient.

Now, Montero emphasizes whenever it has occasion that the socialist executive will reduce the deficit by half in just two years. The Minister of Finance incides that the PGE architecture itself "is already based on fiscal consolidation," but the reality is that the 2022 accounts do not include any concrete measure for that containment and all the correction should be done at the own economic growth. .

The concrete evolution, according to the estimation of Finance, is that of 10.9% last year, it will be 8.4% at the close of this exercise. In 2022, the data will be 5% of GDP, and that rhythm of reduction that Montero emphasizes both very noticeably that year, since in 2023 the estimate is 4%. And in 2024 the figure will be of the aforementioned 3.2%, which will remain very bulky several years after the moment in which the crisis of the coronavirus is expected to leave, and that will keep Spain in the same situation of vulnerability before the next Crisis: Without barely margin of action.